Gold’s September Outlook
Gold is anticipated to wrap up September with one of its strongest performances since the breakout rally in 2024, despite some bumps expected next week. This marks a shift, as gold has experienced losses for seven consecutive Septembers. Interestingly, it seems poised for consecutive profits for the first time since September 2009-10, as we look ahead to 2024-25.
This trend underlines the ongoing momentum in precious metals since last year’s rally began. Even with gold hitting new record highs, it’s tough to ignore the potential for further gains.
The fundamental factors that have influenced this upward trend remain largely intact and have even grown stronger over the past year.
The Federal Reserve may need to reconsider its policies, signaling a shift in the economic landscape as we move into next year. Typically, when the Fed reduces rates, it tends to commit fully rather than pause midway, which is something worth noting.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions and global political uncertainty remain in play. Not everyone is convinced that prices are dropping, which boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
Former President Trump’s ongoing trade policies have only intensified these factors, pushing some to distance themselves from the dollar, though some data seems to suggest otherwise. Additionally, central banks around the world are steadily increasing their gold reserves.
There’s also a prevalent argument among investors that ETF holdings aren’t quite matching the enthusiasm for gold purchases, with an increasing number of bids emerging.
These bullish indicators have been in place for an extended period and still appear robust when considering gold’s performance. After last year’s gains of 27%, gold has risen about 43% this year, which is certainly noteworthy.
While I’m optimistic about gold, I believe we might see some pullback or retreat in the near term. This is something I’ve been contemplating, even as I seek out attractive opportunities.
As for the coming months, it could pose an intriguing challenge for gold traders. Traditionally, the period from December to January is the strongest seasonal time for gold. Will it sustain its profitability before then? Or will we see a repeat of the patterns from 2024?
