Google searches for “Mortgage Help” have surged recently, marking a high point since 2009.
Earlier this month, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) addressed the increase, sharing a Google Trends graph that linked it to what she referred to as “Donald Trump’s Housing Market.”
A review by News Nation, a sister network, looked into Google Trends Data. Their findings showed that searches for “mortgage help” peaked in August, reaching levels not seen during the economic downturn years.
However, the context matters: Comparing now to the peaks of 2008 or 2009 might be more relevant than what current trends imply. While some may draw parallels to the Great Recession, it’s essential to recognize that this recent uptick doesn’t necessarily predict an impending crisis in housing.
Understanding Google Trends Data
The data indicates that while searches for “mortgage help” have risen, this doesn’t automatically signal widespread financial distress. The increase includes users seeking assistance with mortgage applications and general advice. For instance, interest in “refinance help” has also seen a slight uptick in August, likely due to relaxed mortgage fees.
The search terms you use make a difference. Inputting “mortgage help” without quotes yields broader results, while placing quotes around “help with mortgage” reveals a slight rise—though still well below the peak recorded in March 2009. On the flip side, searching “Quotes to help with mortgage payments” showed no significant spike.
It’s worth noting that Google has revised its data tracking methodology three times since 2011, making year-on-year comparisons somewhat unreliable.
Other indicators, like searches for “foreclosures,” haven’t seen a rise and remain quite low, according to Google Trends data.
That said, the recent increase in search activity could hint at emerging financial challenges. In August, search levels for “help with mortgage” surpassed those at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
Foreclosures and Late Payments Stay Low
Home prices are soaring, and rising mortgage rates are sidelining many potential buyers. Nevertheless, traditional indicators of distress, such as foreclosures and late payments, are currently significantly lower than during major recession periods.
In the second quarter, the share of new serious mortgage arrears beyond 90 days was 1.3%, a rise from 0.6% two years prior. By contrast, during the financial crisis from 2007 to early 2009, this rate spiked from 1.9% to 7.4%, often exceeding 8% in 2009.
Foreclosure numbers have been increasing lately, yet historical context sheds light on these figures.
According to real estate data, there were 187,659 properties in the U.S. with foreclosure applications, which includes default notifications, scheduled auctions, or bank seizures. That represents a 5.8% increase from the same time last year.
For perspective, over 1.5 million properties filed for foreclosure in the first half of 2009, with around 1.3 million in the same timeframe in 2008.
Recent job data suggests a cooldown in the labor market, but the unemployment rate is still relatively low, currently at 4.3%.
