Australian Dollar Holds Steady Amid Trade Data

• The Australian dollar remains stable following the latest trade balance report released on Thursday.
• Australia’s trade surplus decreased to 1,825 million in August, significantly lower than the expected 6,500 million, dropping from a previous 7,310 million.
• The US dollar is facing challenges following the federal government shutdown on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) maintained its position against the US Dollar (USD) amid the release of trade balance data. The AUD/USD pair saw little movement, as traders focused on the impact of the US government shutdown.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s trade surplus fell to 1,825 million in August, with exports declining by 7.8% month-on-month, following a rise in gold exports just a few months earlier. Meanwhile, imports rose by 3.2% in August, contrasting with a 1.3% decrease in July.

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusted its official cash rate (OCR) to 3.6% at its September monetary policy meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that monthly CPI components are slightly higher than anticipated and noted that inflation has not been fully escaped.

US Dollar Restrained as Government Shutdown Looms

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the USD against six major currencies, faced five consecutive sessions of decline and was trading around 97.70.
• The US federal government shutdown resulted from Congress’s failure to agree on funding, causing a deadlock.
• Due to this situation, the September US Non-Agricultural Payroll (NFP) report will be postponed.
• The US ADP Employment Change Report showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, which was below the expected increase of 50,000.
• While job vacancies increased slightly from 7.21 million to 7.23 million in August, the employment rate dipped to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024.
• The CME FedWatch tool indicates nearly a 97% expectation of a Fed rate cut in October, with a 76% chance of another cut in December.
• In other news, reports emerged that China Mineral Resources Group directed steel manufacturers to stop new purchases from Australian firm BHP, coinciding with China’s holiday from October 1-8. However, a Chinese pricing company disputed the report.
• The Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.8 in September, surpassing market expectations but still indicating a contraction.
• The White House announced that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet President Donald Trump on October 20 to discuss the Orcas Nuclear Submarine Agreement.
• Australia’s AIG Industry Index showed slight improvement while still indicating contraction, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4.

AUD/USD Technical Insights

Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6620. An analysis of the daily chart reveals the pair remains within an upward trend, signifying a bullish outlook. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is above the neutral 50 level, further supporting this bullish sentiment.

The AUD/USD pair is exploring a peak of 0.6707, reached in mid-September, with an upper boundary of the upward channel located at about 0.6760.

Initial support is observed at the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.6598, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6558. Should the price dip below these levels, a more bearish sentiment may emerge, pushing the AUD/USD to test its previous low of 0.6414 recorded on August 21.

AUD/USD: Daily Charts

Current Australian Dollar Exchange Rates

Below is a summary of the Australian Dollar (AUD) exchange rate against major currencies:

This overview provides insights into the fluctuations of the Australian Dollar against major global currencies, reflecting current market sentiments and economic conditions.