Keir Starmer has been the British prime minister for just under 15 months, yet he seems like a beleaguered and troubled leader. His net favoritism rating has plummeted to minus 50—it’s astonishing, really—and he’s now among the least popular leaders in the democratic world, struggling even with his own supporters.
This significant drop in support is puzzling. Labour had a resounding victory in the July 2024 general election, securing a substantial majority in the House of Commons with 172 seats. However, the support base appears fragile. While 211 Labour MPs returned from the last election, their vote share only increased by 1.6%. It seems only a third of voters were genuinely enthusiastic about Labour, with many more simply preferring them to the Conservatives.
Challenges and misjudgments seem to follow a prime minister like a shadow. The economic growth has been sluggish, and issues like illegal immigration—which were problematic for his campaign—have continued to rise rather than decline. On top of that, Starmer lost two cabinet ministers, including the Deputy Prime Minister, due to scandals. Just last month, he had to deal with a scandal involving the appointed US ambassador, Peter Mandelson, who faced controversy for his connections with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
But let’s not forget the opposition. The Conservative Party is currently facing its own struggles, overshadowed by the rise of Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party. This party disrupted the political landscape by garnering nearly 15% of the popular vote in the election, and their poll numbers have since climbed—exceeding 25% in January and reaching 30% in May. Meanwhile, Labour has stagnated around 20%.
Starmer is facing harsh unpopularity. Some dislike him intensely, others have simply turned away, and quite worryingly, a significant number view him as somewhat of a tragic figure. His party’s support has dwindled to just two-thirds of the already low level he achieved during the election. It begs the question: is the administration on the brink of a crisis?
I’m not entirely convinced. It’s important to separate the fate of the Prime Minister from the government as a whole. The Conservative Party has seen five leaders come and go between 2010 and 2024 without losing their grip on power. In British politics, if a prime minister loses the backing of their party, they can be dismissed almost instantly. The rules are quite clear, as the monarch appoints a successor. Since the role’s established beginnings in the 1720s, a Prime Minister has always been someone capable of commanding a majority in the House.
Labour, unlike the Conservatives, doesn’t have a history of unceremonious ousting. It’s rare for a Labour Prime Minister to be forcibly removed by their party; you could argue at least six Conservatives have faced that fate. The last Labour leader to be ousted was Jr Clynes in 1922. According to Labour’s rulebook, about 20% of its members, currently about 80 individuals, can trigger leadership elections, which are open to all party members.
This sort of challenge requires a lot of courage from members of Parliament. As Ralph Waldo Emerson advised, “When you attack the king, you must kill him.” Additionally, evidence suggests that the party’s 330,000 members tend to be predominantly middle-aged, middle-class men. However, the possibility of a coup is still there, especially as lawmakers might grow anxious about their own electoral security.
The government’s fall might not be imminent. The 2022 Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act means that general elections aren’t mandated until the summer of 2029, unless the government loses a crucial vote in the House of Commons on a matter of confidence or another significant issue.
Currently, there are 399 Labour MPs, but only nine of them, who are suspended from the party, actually support Starmer. For the government to be at risk, around 80 MPs would need to turn against it. While tension exists, Labour sits at a 10-point deficit in the polls against the Reform Party. Pushing for an early election could be political suicide.
If the UK government retains a working majority in the House and is set to govern until the next scheduled election, it can largely do so without interference. Only Labour’s own MPs can unsettle the government, and there’s little incentive for them to act.
The leadership situation is precarious. Starmer’s party has the capability to remove him, though it would be unprecedented. Nevertheless, Labour could potentially govern until 2029 unless Starmer—or anyone else—sees some upside in calling early elections. At this moment in time, that seems highly unlikely.
