Did we witness the old Patrick Mahomes against the Ravens last Sunday? It sure seemed like it. Mahomes threw for an impressive 270 yards and four touchdowns. The Ravens’ defense has faced its own set of challenges, but one can’t deny that the Chiefs’ offense has had to really dig deep this season. Having Xavier on the field provided crucial support. If he can manage his shoulder injury, he should play a pivotal role in the game.
On the flip side, the Jaguars aren’t having the same issues with offense as they did under former head coach Liam Cohen. They currently boast a 3-1 record, largely due to an improved defensive unit. The expectation was that Cohen would elevate Trevor Lawrence’s game in a way similar to Baker Mayfield’s rise, but so far, Lawrence has remained fairly average. Meanwhile, RB Travis Etienne has emerged as a standout player.
Jacksonville’s defense has only allowed an average of 18 points per game, along with 5.1 yards per play, ranking them fourth and eleventh overall for the season. The Chiefs are allowing 19 points and 5.3 yards per play, which places them seventh and sixteenth, respectively, at this early point in the season.
When it comes to passing, the Jaguars rank third in EPA per drop and first in DVOA against the pass. They also sit ninth in EPA overall and sixteenth in DVOA. In contrast, both teams find themselves below average in EPA and DVOA metrics, with the Chiefs ranking 31st in both, while Jacksonville stands at 19th and 20th.
Now, let’s dive into the best DFS picks for the upcoming Sunday night matchup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (Flex $13,800, CPT $20,700)
Mahomes and the Chiefs prefer a fast-paced offensive strategy, which keeps him near the top of fantasy projections. Despite facing challenges in scoring, his floor remains quite high. The Jaguars’ defense might limit his ceiling, but the closer the game remains, the more he’ll be pressed to perform.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars (Flex $11,800, CPT $17,700)
Etienne has had a solid season so far, catching another touchdown and managing 32 yards on six receptions while totaling 394 rushing yards on 65 attempts (6.1 YPC) and two touchdowns. He’s emerged as the only jug player worth considering for the captain slot in a single slate. Although Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence have potential, they haven’t delivered just yet.
With the Chiefs showing strength in passing defense, it’s likely the Jaguars will try to establish a run game early. If that happens, Etienne could have a standout game.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (Flex $10,600, CPT $15,900)
Worthy stands out among the Chiefs’ skill players. While Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco have been utilized somewhat evenly, Travis Kelce seems to be not as effective lately. For a player not named Worthy or Mahomes, the captain slot might be worth a gamble, as several short touchdowns could be on the agenda.
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs (Flex $6,000, CPT $9,000)
Smith-Schuster may not have the same advantages he once did, but he has shown a decent performance with a solid floor over the past couple of weeks. In his last game, he caught all six of his targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. He’s currently second on the team in targets and should continue to be a reliable target for Mahomes.
Parker Washington, WR, Jaguars (Flex $5,000, CPT $7,500)
Washington’s usage has been somewhat unclear, but he’s shown flashes that are encouraging. He scored a kick-return touchdown last week and displayed good explosiveness. While he’s not someone I’d recommend for cash games, he could be a worthwhile pick in larger tournaments.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jaguars (Flex $4,600, CPT $6,900)
Strange has been utilized fairly well, racking up 7-6 targets in the last two games. Although he hasn’t yet found the end zone, he’s been reliable and should see his role increase as the season progresses.
