With the government shutdown being the first since 2009, the path to reopening likely hinges on Democrats convincing Trump to embrace Obamacare, a system he has often aimed to dismantle.
In this effort, Democrats might resort to some strategic flattery similar to what various U.S. companies and international leaders have done to gain favor with President Trump. Essentially, their best shot at breaking the deadlock lies in demonstrating to Trump the political and personal upsides of defending the Affordable Care Act.
Before the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R.S.D., mentioned that Republicans were open to discussions about the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act, especially with more than 20 million people facing potential premium increases come January. However, this proposal hinges on the government being reopened first.
Bipartisan conversations indicate that neither side’s negotiating position has shifted significantly. Democrats perceive the Republican proposal, which centers on healthcare premiums, as merely a distraction unless Republicans first agree to reopen the government. After all, the Affordable Care Act is, as many say, a significant dismantling of the healthcare safety net.
So what are the implications for us?
To move forward, Congress would need to meet Republican demands and pass a temporary funding resolution, which would also reinstate the premium tax credit effective January 1, provided no action occurs on the Affordable Care Act reform by then.
This would offer Democrats a way to gauge Republican sincerity regarding reform discussions while also giving them the power to reject any proposals that don’t safeguard enrollees from premium hikes. Projections suggest that by 2026, premiums might rise by an average of 75%.
If a deal isn’t reached by New Year’s Eve, the automatic restoration of the tax credit would kick in, allowing what some have labeled the “Do-Nothing Congress” to take proactive measures to protect many Americans from unexpected challenges.
However, to overcome the stubborn negotiating stance from Republican leaders, Democrats might need to persuade Trump to support Obamacare under a new banner.
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posited that Trump perhaps doesn’t fully grasp the pain the proposed changes could inflict on many. Recognizing that Trump’s resistance is more about his opposition to “Obama” rather than “care” could offer some flexibility to rebrand the popular program as a Trump initiative.
Congress has previously worked to embed Trump’s name into voters’ minds through various initiatives, like the COVID-19 CARES Act Relief Checks and other significant bills, suggesting that the groundwork for a similar approach exists.
What might a rebranding effort look like?
There might be a bill to reinstate the premium tax credit, but it would need to clarify how the Affordable Care Act was “saved” by one man, making it clear that enrollees should check for “TRUMP credits” on their registration sites.
While Trump often claims credit for favorable economic conditions, he could similarly shift blame for negative aspects onto others, like labeling the Inflation Control Act as a trinket of “Sleepy Joe,” while presenting the new “Trump Credit” as his own solution to expiring tax credits.
This kind of strategic charm isn’t unfamiliar; many European leaders have effectively used flattery to navigate their interactions with Trump, something that has been quite beneficial in their relationships.
Democratic negotiators don’t need to go as far as erecting a gold-encrusted statue of Trump, but they should aim to meet Trump’s needs to resolve this deadlock, and Republican leaders are likely to fall in line as well.
This potential compromise might not address all issues at hand. Yet, in this high-stakes game, it’s essential for all parties, particularly Trump, to emerge with a sense of achieving a “political victory” in order to mitigate the economic fallout resulting from an extended shutdown.
