As Democrats prepare for the upcoming midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, one notable statistic from the last White House election stands out: the number of Hispanics who refrained from supporting President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris and chose to stay home.
A recent study by Voto Latino highlights that the turnout among Hispanic voters decreased more significantly than any other racial or ethnic group in last year’s election.
The findings suggest that nearly 4.5 million Latino voters, who participated in the 2020 election, opted not to vote in 2024.
More than 70% of these “dropout voters” were identified as Democrats, with around 48% being categorized as strong Democrats, according to the organization.
This data confirmed suspicions held by Maria Teresa Kumar, the founder and CEO of Voto Latino, in the weeks leading up to the election.
“What frustrated us was that, even prior to the election, we were trying to reach individuals we could not connect with,” Kumar shared in an interview. “You might label this election a persuasion campaign. Turnout was low, but even so, there was a considerable divide in who the campaign ultimately engaged.”
In the final days leading up to the election, Kumar realized, while Voto Latino and other groups were canvassing in battleground states like Nevada and Pennsylvania, that “we were their first point of contact.”
Voto Latino’s research indicates that nearly half of the voting decline was among Latinos under 40. Of these younger Latinos, about 80% are estimated to be Democrats, and nearly 50% are identified as “strong Democrats.”
The study also indicated a steep drop in support for the Democratic Party within populous counties like Miami-Dade County in Florida and El Paso in Texas, with Latino voter numbers decreasing by over 8% and 11%, respectively.
Democratic strategists point to various factors behind this decline in Latino participation, citing reasons like insufficient support and a lack of connection to either candidate.
“They chose not to vote because they weren’t inspired by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, and they perceived Donald Trump as a racist,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha. “Regardless of party affiliation, their lives have remained unchanged.”
A Pew Research Center study showed that 48% of Hispanic voters backed Trump, whereas 51% supported Harris. Trump’s notable approval ratings were largely driven by Latino men, who resonated with his economic rhetoric.
Rocha maintained that although Trump may not have fulfilled his campaign promises, “at least he was addressing the issues.”
Newer polls suggest a decline in Trump’s support among Hispanic voters, possibly providing an opportunity for Democrats. This shift could also impact the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia coming up this year.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted recently found that 69% of Hispanics surveyed disapproved of Trump’s performance, while 58% believed that the economy had deteriorated since he took office.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll corroborated these results, indicating that only 32% of Hispanic voters approved of the president’s performance.
A study by Somos Botantes, a left-leaning Latino voter group, released last month showed similar results, revealing a decline in Trump’s favorability ratings throughout the early months of his second term. By February, it had dropped by 12 points, and last month it fell by 20 points.
Yet, Kumar expressed concerns that Democrats are still lacking in their understanding of the needs of Hispanic voters as they approach 2024.
“No, I don’t think the party is improving,” she remarked. “When you ask Latino voters about the Democratic Party’s policy agenda, they feel less anxious, they can cover their rent, yet they witness loved ones being abducted in broad daylight, even without any plans in place.”
“So far, there hasn’t been a significant collective outcry regarding the struggles faced by the Latino community, apart from the Hispanic caucus,” Kumar observed.
Kumar referenced an incident where federal agents forcibly escorted Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) from a press conference held by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, emphasizing that Democrats should have united to protest Padilla’s treatment more strongly.
However, Rocha suggested that Democrats could regain support from Hispanic voters by focusing on issues that matter to working-class individuals, such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration, rather than emphasizing democracy as they did in 2024.
“They first need to accept they made mistakes and genuinely seek forgiveness,” Rocha stated. “You need to acknowledge when you’ve lost your path. If you’re sincere, people will be open to welcoming you back.”
