Simply put
- Bitcoin experienced a decline early Friday, largely influenced by President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. Analysts are particularly focused on a critical support level set at $103,000.
- There seems to be selling pressure among short-term holders who invested around $113,000, while the Coinbase premium has turned negative, indicating a potential decrease in demand in the U.S.
- Concerns over U.S. banking issues and approximately $1.2 billion in liquidations within a day are further reducing the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Bitcoin continued its downward trend on Friday morning due to uncertainties regarding high tariffs that President Trump suggested the previous week.
As the weekend approaches, analysts recommend watching the $103,000 price point, as it could be significant.
At this moment, Bitcoin is trading at around $106,953, which is roughly 11% lower compared to the same time last week and about 8% lower since last month, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.
JA_Maartun, an analyst from CryptoQuant, noted that the price drop has prompted short-term holders—those who bought Bitcoin around $113,000—to sell off their assets. Typically, short-term holders are wallets that have held onto Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
MAaartun further mentioned that, “The realized price had been supportive for an extended period, but ultimately broke down after a fifth test, leading to increased selling pressure, further worsened by the turnaround in Coinbase’s premium gap.”
It’s noteworthy that he doesn’t blame Coinbase for Bitcoin’s struggles. The “Coinbase Premium” refers to the somewhat higher price of Bitcoin on this exchange compared to foreign ones like Binance, which usually signifies healthy demand in the U.S. But, his comments underline that a negative premium indicates either sales from U.S. traders or diminishing demand for Bitcoin.
He expressed concern over the $103,000 threshold, as it’s about 10% below the realized price for short-term holders, asserting that this level has been crucial support throughout the bullish cycle anticipated in 2025.
“If prices dip into this range, it could be vital to monitor,” he pointed out.
Users of Prediction Markets affiliated with Myriad believe that there’s a likelihood Bitcoin could drop to $100,000 prior to bouncing back to $120,000. As of Friday morning, about 65.8% of users think a dip to a low point will occur before any potential recovery.
Julio Morena, Research Head at CryptoQuant, commented that with Bitcoin breaking below its recent consolidation range of $110,000 to $108,000, the next support level is likely to be $100,000, representing a critical price point for traders.
He added that maintaining a price above $100,000 could signify significant psychological support.
At the moment, there are signs suggesting a potential easing of trade tensions.
During an interview, President Trump shared his thoughts on the 100% tariffs he had proposed, contemplating that, “It’s probably not sustainable. I could maintain it, but they forced me into this.” He also mentioned plans for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month.
The tariffs he suggested led to more than $19 billion worth of liquidated crypto contracts. Yet, as trade uncertainties wane, rising credit risk concerns are being noted among regional banks in the U.S.
JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, hinted during a recent earnings call that the bankruptcies of two auto firms and the related bad debts might indicate more trouble ahead.
“I might not be supposed to say this, but if there’s one cockroach, there are likely more,” he remarked.
This overarching uncertainty has affected both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Major indexes opened lower, with the Nasdaq still declining at the time of writing, and the global market cap of cryptocurrencies diminished by 2.8% to $3.66 trillion on Friday morning.
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of Redstone, mentioned, “The combined pressures from U.S. bank issues, the Bank of Japan’s hint at rate hikes, and a wave of liquidations accounted for over $1.2 billion in leveraged position losses in just the last 24 hours.”
He expressed particular concern about institutional selling pressure, noting, “It’s noteworthy that none of the 12 Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows yesterday. The market is probing an important support level, yet this remains within normal volatility.”
