Poll Shows Fleming Leading Cassidy in Senate Primary
A recent poll indicates that Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming is ahead of the incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy in the upcoming Republican Senate primary, marking a notable shift from earlier polling done just six months prior to the 2026 primary.
Conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling from October 15 to 17, 2025, the survey found Fleming at 25% among announced and prospective Republican candidates, slightly ahead of Cassidy’s 23%. The other five candidates collectively garnered 17%, leaving a considerable 35% of respondents undecided.
In a likely head-to-head scenario, Fleming has widened his margin over Cassidy to 40% compared to Cassidy’s 29%, up from 36-29% in the last poll. Interestingly, 31% of voters still haven’t made a choice about who they prefer. The sample consisted of 610 likely Republican primary voters, with the data collected using a blend of 67% text messaging and 33% live calls, presenting a margin of error of 4.0%. Among respondents, 70% identified as Republicans and 30% as independents, with demographics showing 93% white, 4% black, and 3% other.
This poll covered major regions in Louisiana, such as Baton Rouge (21%), Lafayette (15%), New Orleans (33%), and Shreveport (10%). It’s worth noting that this survey followed the recent dissolution of the Independence Party in Louisiana, meaning former party members are now categorized as independents.
The timing is significant, as Fleming’s campaign is highlighting its grassroots support, claiming to have over 200 volunteers and more than 10,000 signs distributed statewide. Despite heavy coverage and support for Cassidy from external groups, Fleming’s popularity appears to be growing.
Fleming, a Navy veteran and physician, currently serves as Treasurer and has a background in business. He represented Louisiana’s 4th District in the U.S. House for eight years and was a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, where he worked on conservative initiatives aimed at promoting limited government and constitutional accountability.
After his Congressional tenure, he held positions in the Trump administration, including Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, then Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and later, Chief of Staff from 2020 to 2021. In 2023, he gained Trump’s endorsement in his successful campaign for state treasurer, which aligned with a wave of pro-Trump candidates in Louisiana’s statewide elections.
On the other hand, Cassidy has faced ongoing criticism from Republican constituents, particularly since his vote aligned with Senate Democrats during Trump’s second impeachment trial following the January 6 Capitol riot. Cassidy has made statements regarding Trump’s chances in future elections, emphasizing the Republican party’s challenges in battleground states and previously commenting on the Special Counsel’s case against Trump, describing it as “nearly perfect.” Furthermore, he noted that Trump’s statements during a rally in Ohio had left voters feeling “concerned.”
