IAEA Reports on Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

On Saturday, Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the agency thinks the “vast majority” of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium remained intact following bombings by Israel and the United States in June.

In a recent interview with a Swiss publication, Grossi indicated that most of the uranium is believed to be housed at Iran’s primary nuclear sites in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. Interestingly, these facilities sustained significant damage from the airstrikes carried out by the U.S.

The latest estimates from the IAEA suggest that Iran has approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. This level is far greater than what’s needed for any civilian purposes but still short of what qualifies as weapons-grade. Since the June strikes, the IAEA has urged Iran to take accountability for its uranium stockpile, but cooperation from Iran has been minimal.

“What will become of this uranium? Will Iran choose to keep it? Will they lower the enrichment levels again? Or might they even export it?” Grossi pondered on Friday, expressing concern over the uncertain future of the stockpile.

Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, acknowledged that U.S. airstrikes resulted in substantial damage to Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. However, they assert that much of the enriched uranium survived and is now buried under the debris.

The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported that satellite images from last week indicated Iran has begun excavating tunnels linked to the buried Isfahan complex. However, they noted that this activity does not hint at an urgency to remove centrifuges or enriched uranium; instead, it seems aimed at ensuring secure access to tunnel entrances and fortifying them against potential future attacks.

Nonproliferation expert Andrea Stryker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies remarked that Grossi’s comments align with findings from U.S. and Israeli sources, suggesting that Iran’s uranium stash remains largely buried but that Iran currently lacks the capability to convert 60 percent enriched uranium into weapons-grade material.

Stryker also cautioned that if Iran attempts to recover and relocate its uranium inventory, it would essentially be risking a military response from both the U.S. and Israel.

In a related development, Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced on Monday that Iran is withdrawing from its inspection agreement with the IAEA. This move effectively ends their last remaining cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

Larijani’s comments mark Iran’s fulfillment of its warning to halt collaborations with the IAEA should European powers impose “snapback” sanctions as a consequence of Iran’s non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the JCPOA.

The E3 countries—France, Germany, and the UK—initiated the snapback sanctions process in August, following Iran’s failure to comply with the terms of the JCPOA. The Trump administration had lauded this stance, arguing it was long overdue for the E3 to share the U.S. perspective on Iran’s violations.

In September, the United Nations Security Council enacted these snapback sanctions. Iranian officials expressed their outrage, calling on other nations to continue trading with Iran despite the sanctions. Currently, only China and Russia have voiced support for Iran.

“Our foreign minister stated after a Cairo meeting that if the triggering mechanism is activated, the negotiations would be deemed null and void,” Larijani said, indicating a recent meeting between Iranian officials and IAEA representatives in Cairo.

He added that requests from any governmental agency regarding this matter should be directed to the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council for review. Larijani emphasized Iran’s stance, asserting that the execution of the trigger mechanism is an unfounded act of misconduct by the Europeans, claiming that Iran has adhered to all conditions for the past decade.