While the specific percentage won’t be available until October 24, advocacy groups for seniors are anticipating a notable change.
WASHINGTON — The announcement for Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is expected to come out on Friday.
This year’s COLA announcement will detail the monthly checks that retirees will start receiving in January 2026. The ongoing government shutdown has pushed the announcement back, moving it from the original date of October 15.
What will the cost of living increase be in 2026?
Although the precise percentage won’t be known until October 24, senior advocacy organizations forecast that the 2026 COLA may be around 2.7%.
A major advocate, the Elderly Federation, uses Consumer Price Index data for urban wage earners to regularly update predictions for the COLA. This model also incorporates factors such as the national unemployment rate and Federal Reserve interest rates.
The data from September will be crucial in determining next year’s COLA.
“Seniors all over are anxiously awaiting the official COLA announcement in October,” remarked TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “Our research indicates that about 39 percent of seniors depend on benefits for their entire income, so this announcement significantly influences their quality of life.”
With a 2.7% COLA, recipients can expect to see an increase of over $50 each month starting in January.
Last year’s COLA was recorded at 2.5%.
The largest increase over the last decade occurred in 2023, which saw an 8.7% COLA—the highest adjustment since 1981. Over the past two decades, the average COLA has been about 2.6%.
Currently, nearly 75 million individuals receive Social Security benefits, encompassing retirees, disabled individuals, and children.
When will the 2026 Social Security COLA be revealed?
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the September 2025 Inflation Report will be published on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
According to the agency, “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until normal government operations resume.” This release is essential for the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines and ensure timely benefit payments.
The annual COLA announcement will indicate the monthly amounts retirees can expect to receive starting in January 2026.
Nearly 75 million people currently receive Social Security benefits, including retirees, those with disabilities, and children.
How is the COLA determined each year?
The yearly COLA is derived from the average annual rise in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage and Office Workers (CPI-W) from July through September. Unfortunately, due to the government shutdown, the reporting for September’s inflation has been delayed.
Without September’s data, the exact COLA for the next year remains uncertain.
There have been discussions in recent years advocating for the agency to use the CPI-E, another index that reflects price changes based on seniors’ spending habits, particularly in categories like healthcare, food, and medications.
