New Jersey Voter Insights
In New Jersey, the political atmosphere seems quite charged. While Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill appears to have a lead in the polls, many voters believe their neighbors are backing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, according to a surprising poll.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters think their colleagues and neighbors are supporting Ciattarelli, whereas 47% express the same sentiment about Rep. Sherrill (D-N.J.). Findings from a recent Quantus Insights poll back this up.
The poll also indicates Sherrill is ahead of Ciattarelli by a slim margin of 49% to 46%.
“This poll underscores that Republicans, Democrats, and independents recognize the rising momentum behind Jack Ciattarelli, suggesting he could secure a win next Tuesday,” remarked New Jersey Republican strategist Janet Hoffman.
Other polls show Sherrill holds an edge over Ciattarelli in the gubernatorial race, with a lead of about 3.7 percentage points, as per the RealClearPolitics aggregate.
Yet, it’s worth noting that when Ciattarelli narrowly lost to then-incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (Democratic) in 2021, RCP’s tally underestimated his approval rating by around five points. This history has led to skepticism about this year’s polling accuracy.
“Asking voters about their perceptions of others’ choices can often reveal campaign momentum,” added Hoffman.
Among Republican voters, the perception that their neighbors support Ciattarelli is significantly higher—83% believe in the Republican candidate’s backing.
Sherrill’s polling lead has also helped boost early voting figures for Democrats. Up until now, 54% of early voters identify as Democrats, while 28% are Republicans, with 18% being undeclared or affiliated with other parties.
However, as of Wednesday, only 29% of voters had participated in early voting. This includes 35% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans, according to the survey.
The Quantus Insights poll sampled 1,380 likely voters from October 26 to 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Election day is set for Tuesday.
