Dutch National Election Results Hang by a Thread
In the recent Dutch national election, the race between the two leading parties appears to be incredibly close, possibly just a few thousand votes apart.
With 99.7 percent of votes counted, Geert Wilders’ right-wing Freedom Party (PVV) and Rob Jetten’s center-left Democratic Party 66 (D66) both secured 16.7 percent of the national vote, translating to 26 seats each. However, this falls well short of the 76 seats necessary to form a government.
At this point, it’s still uncertain which party will officially come out on top once all votes are finalized. A late influx of ballots, notably from Amsterdam and Dutch citizens voting from abroad, could swing the results in favor of D66. As of now, Mr. Wilders’ PVV is slightly ahead by fewer than 2,000 votes.
Update 15:30 — New Votes Counted
With various final votes coming in, D66 seems to be maintaining a slender lead, which could position them to take charge in forming the government starting tomorrow. Appointing “scouts” to seek out potential coalition partners appears imminent.
The gap between the two parties has shifted slightly, now showing D66 with 16.9 percent and about 1.76 million votes, while PVV has 16.7 percent with roughly 1.74 million votes. Still, the allocation of seats remains unchanged, and both parties will head into the new parliament with 26 seats each, effectively tying for first place.
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Even though Mr. Wilders has finished tied for the top position, it doesn’t compare to the 17-seat lead he previously held in the last election. In many parts of Europe, it’s common for other parties to refuse to collaborate with right-wing populist groups like the PVV, creating what some call a “sanitary cordon.” Many conservative leaders, focused on border management, often lean towards working with left-leaning parties instead.
However, following his notable victory, even other right-wing factions felt compelled to break that cordon and collaborate, in a nod to democratic wishes.
Ultimately, the coalition government was unable to thrive. Various parties stymied Mr. Wilders’ efforts to carry out the border reforms that had garnered him support, leading him to withdraw from the coalition. This prompted a snap election.
Even if the final tally shows Wilders narrowly ahead of D66, forming a coalition might prove tricky this time. Still, Mr. Wilders has requested that the Speaker of the House hold off on coalition discussions until all election results and potential recounts are concluded.
The Dutch national broadcaster NOS noted, “The differences are so small that officially determining who enters exploratory talks is essential. By rule, the largest party gets to initiate discussions.”
In addition to the nail-biting outcomes, the election revealed a few unexpected developments. The left-leaning Green Labor Party, where former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans is a leading candidate, was anticipated to place strongly, with some polls even suggesting it might take first place.
If that had been the case, Timmermans could have been positioned to lead the next government as prime minister. However, in an unforeseen twist, Dutch voters appeared to reject polling predictions, resulting in lost votes and seats for his party. In a swift response on Thursday, Timmermans acknowledged the public’s verdict and resigned immediately.
Another key takeaway was the downfall of the New Social Contract Party (NSC), which had focused on financial prudence, governmental reforms, and immigration reduction. After having a solid standing in the previous government, they fell from 20 seats down to none this year. Exit polls indicated that many former NSC voters shifted to the conservative CDA, which climbed from 5 to 18 seats, and to the liberal D66.
