EUR/USD is cautiously hovering around a two-week low of 1.1570 in the early hours of Friday trading in Europe. Major currency pairs seem to be having a tough time gaining traction, while the US dollar remains strong, buoyed by several factors: the Federal Reserve’s shift away from dovish expectations and improving US-China trade relations.
As of now, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six key currencies, is situated near 99.70, close to the nearly three-month high achieved on Thursday.
USD price this week
The following table outlines the percentage changes of the US dollar (USD) in relation to major currencies throughout this week, with the US dollar notably performing best against the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Australian Dollar | New Zealand Dollar | Swiss Franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.58% | 1.31% | 0.62% | -0.13% | -0.02% | 0.96% | 0.66% | |
| EUR | -0.58% | 0.73% | 0.09% | -0.70% | -0.53% | 0.38% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | -1.31% | -0.73% | -0.73% | -1.43% | -1.24% | -0.35% | -0.68% | |
| JPY | -0.62% | -0.09% | 0.73% | -0.83% | -0.71% | 0.22% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | 0.70% | 1.43% | 0.83% | 0.05% | 1.09% | 0.76% | |
| Australian Dollar | 0.02% | 0.53% | 1.24% | 0.71% | -0.05% | 0.90% | 0.61% | |
| New Zealand Dollar | -0.96% | -0.38% | 0.35% | -0.22% | -1.09% | -0.90% | -0.33% | |
| Swiss Franc | -0.66% | -0.08% | 0.68% | 0.05% | -0.76% | -0.61% | 0.33% |
The heat map illustrates the percentage differences among major currencies, with the base currency on the left and the quote currency on top. For instance, to see the percentage change for USD against JPY, check the value in that corresponding box.
Expectations of a dovish Fed have eased after Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a press conference that the recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% to 4.00% doesn’t suggest further cuts are imminent.
On the other hand, the euro (EUR) has remained relatively stable following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcement on Thursday. The ECB opted to maintain its deposit interest rate at 2%, citing that inflation pressures are still around the 2% target. They also didn’t provide strong guidance regarding future rate adjustments.
This Friday, all eyes will be on the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) figures for October, due for release at 10 PM Japan time.
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1570 on Friday, situated within the range established on Thursday. The pair’s short-term trend leans bearish, as it’s under the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is around 1.1630.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around the 40.00 mark. A dip below that threshold could generate new bearish momentum.
If the price dips below the low of 1.1547 from October 30, it might swing downwards towards the August 5 low of 1.1528, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1392.
On the flip side, if it manages to break above the October 17 high at 1.1728, another upward push seems likely, potentially targeting the July high at 1.1830 and the round resistance level at 1.1900.
