Election Day on Tuesday features several high-profile races across the nation.
In New York City, Zoran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist, is aiming to become the next mayor.
Mamdani is leading opinion polls significantly over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent. In this largely Democratic city, Republican Curtis Sliwa trails far behind.
Two gubernatorial races are also drawing attention. In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a slight edge over former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R). Meanwhile, in Virginia, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) holds a substantial lead over Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears.
In both states, current governors—Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia—are term-limited.
Meanwhile, California voters will weigh in on Proposition 50, which seeks to redraw the state’s congressional map to benefit Democrats.
Governor Gavin Newsom (D) and fellow party members introduced this measure in response to a previous redistricting in Republican-majority Texas that added several House seats for Republicans.
Here are the key points to monitor on Tuesday:
Will Mamdani win and by what margin?
Mamdani’s ascent has turned into a notable political narrative this year.
The relatively unknown state lawmaker shocked many by defeating Cuomo, a prominent figure in New York politics, during the Democratic primary.
His campaign has focused on making cities more affordable. His relatability and adept use of social media have garnered him praise, especially from younger voters. He’s also highlighted Cuomo’s vulnerabilities, particularly the allegations of sexual misconduct, which Cuomo continues to deny.
Heightened frustration within the Democratic Party regarding U.S. support for Israel’s actions in Gaza has further bolstered Mamdani, who is seeking to become the city’s first Muslim mayor.
As of Monday night, Mamdani was ahead of Cuomo by nearly 11 points in the polls. Sliwa remains a distant third in this predominantly Democratic city.
Initially, there was some unease in Mamdani’s camp due to lower-than-expected young voter turnout, but recent days have seen early voting numbers rise above 700,000.
While an upset from Cuomo can’t be entirely ruled out, it’s anticipated that there will be contrasting narratives following the election about what a Mamdani win would signify.
If his margin aligns with or exceeds polling predictions, supporters would argue it validates his leftist stance and sets a precedent for progressive candidates elsewhere. Conversely, a win by a slim margin—less than 6 points—would likely lead moderate Democrats to claim the New York City race is an anomaly, not indicative of broader trends.
Supporters of Mamdani would counter by citing the odds he faced and the considerable opposition he overcame.
Can Ciattarelli navigate President Trump’s legacy for a surprise in New Jersey?
This Tuesday doesn’t seem overly promising for Republicans, as polls suggest Democratic candidates will dominate the major races and the vote in California.
However, Ciattarelli stands as the Republican Party’s most promising candidate for a surprise win.
According to the latest polling averages, Sherrill, a moderate former Navy helicopter pilot, leads by about four points.
Ciattarelli is fairly well-known in New Jersey, having previously run for governor in both 2017 and 2021, and tries to balance President Trump’s often contentious issues.
While he hasn’t distanced himself enough from Trump to alienate the president’s supporters, his demeanor focuses more on a pro-business, practical approach rather than Trump’s more aggressive style.
That said, considering the fact that in the 2020 election, then-Vice President Harris won over Trump by six points in New Jersey, it’s a tight race.
Will Jay Jones overcome the texting scandal in Virginia?
Spanberger is expected to win the gubernatorial race in Virginia relatively easily, aided by significant discontent towards Trump in the liberal northern suburbs of Washington.
The attorney general election, however, appears more contentious.
Democratic candidate Jay Jones has been scrambling in the final stretches of his campaign.
After a conservative magazine revealed a document from 2022 where Jones, then a state lawmaker, expressed alarming views towards the Republican House speaker, reactions were swift. The document included remarks about speaker Todd Gilbert and his family.
This revelation sparked significant backlash, particularly in a climate sensitive to political violence following the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk in September.
While key Democratic figures like Spanberger condemned his past comments, none have suggested he should resign. Jones has since publicly apologized but remained in the race.
Polls indicate a close matchup between Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, with varying margins reported.
How impactful will a Proposition 50 victory be for Newsom?
Governor Gavin Newsom has spearheaded the campaign for Proposition 50, framing it as part of a larger struggle against the president.
Newsom urged Californian voters, “You have the power to stand up to Donald Trump.” Well-known Democrats, including former President Obama and Senator Elizabeth Warren, have endorsed the measure.
Polling shows strong support for the proposition, with “yes” votes leading by a notable margin.
A significant win could provide a boost for Newsom ahead of his anticipated presidential run in 2028, especially as he’s often clashed with Trump on social media.
However, should Proposition 50 pass, it could also provide right-leaning critics with ammunition to argue that liberals are hypocritical regarding redistricting, accusing Newsom of escalating electoral map debates.
Will Trump voice his opinion?
Trump is making his presence known in New York ahead of Election Day.
In an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes,” he stated that he would choose Cuomo over Mamdani.
On social media, Trump urged his supporters to vote for Cuomo, claiming that a vote for Sliwa would indirectly benefit Mamdani.
This message may resonate in a city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans significantly.
If Mamdani emerges victorious, it’s likely Trump will have plenty to say, particularly as he attempts to frame the Democratic Party as closely aligned with younger democratic socialists.
