The Senate might hold a test vote as soon as tomorrow afternoon on a Republican proposal aimed at preventing a government shutdown and funding parts of the government for the rest of the fiscal year.
We’re still waiting to see the actual bill that will allocate funds through the end of January for various departments, including Agriculture (which oversees SNAP), Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and even Congress until September 30, 2026.
The Senate seems somewhat at a standstill while they work towards resolving the shutdown.
However, once the bill text is released—likely tonight or tomorrow morning—progress should begin.
This bill is all about spending, and notably, it doesn’t seem to have any special provisions for renewing Obamacare subsidies.
To pass the test vote, they’ll need 60 votes, which means reliance on Democratic support. Foxx has been tasked with keeping an eye on whether the next Democratic senator votes to overcome the filibuster, but they might not necessarily vote for the final bill. A simple majority is all that’s needed there.
Insiders believe there’s a coalition of senators inclined to work with Democrats in favor of breaking the filibuster. Some key Democratic figures include Dick Durbin, Jeanne Shaheen, Jack Reed, Jon Ossoff, John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Gary Peters, Angus King, and Patty Murray, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. Interestingly, Fox had a significant conversation with Mr. Murray regarding this spending deal.
This coalition is pretty delicate and could easily unravel.
But if the Senate successfully breaks the filibuster, it’s likely only a matter of time before they vote to reopen the government. In fact, if an agreement on timing can be reached, the vote could happen as soon as Sunday night.
In a notable development, Democrats are blocking a Republican proposal meant to guarantee continued pay for federal employees and military personnel during the shutdown.
Given that, if the Senate manages to overcome the filibuster, they can expect a significant amount of deliberation. Progressives unhappy with their recent healthcare setbacks may try to push for additional measures, meaning a final vote could extend beyond Tuesday.
Conversely, Democrats are opposing the removal of SNAP benefits, which led to an agreement for a quicker process.
The House has to be notified about the reinstatement within 48 hours, meaning they might not return until midweek to collaborate with the Senate on reopening the government. Nonetheless, it’s probable that the House will be called back sooner rather than later.
The future of this bill in the House is uncertain. Still, it’s hard to believe that most Republicans wouldn’t support it. Also, a few moderates like Rep. Tom Suozzi, Rep. Marie Grusenkamp Perez, and Rep. Jared Golden might come around if Republicans lose a few votes. Notably, Golden was the only House Democrat to back the previous stopgap spending bill and has since announced his retirement.
This raises another intriguing question.
Will the House swear in Rep. Adelita Grijalva before or after the vote? If Johnson doesn’t administer her oath before then, Democrats might feel more emboldened.
In political math: with Grijalva’s oath, the House currently has 433 members, consisting of 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats. This gives Republicans a tiny margin, allowing them to lose only two votes without needing Democratic support.
Moreover, be prepared for internal Democratic conflicts that might surface once there’s a break with the party line. There could definitely be a significant rift between those supporting breaking the filibuster and those wanting to protect Obamacare subsidies.
And let’s not overlook the emerging divide between House and Senate Democrats after this unfolds.
There’s also the possibility that some Senate Democrats may have sacrificed their colleagues’ interests to achieve resolution on the shutdown, potentially failing to ensure necessary healthcare coverage amidst precarious political maneuvers.
