The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a decline against the US dollar (USD) on Wednesday, marking a continuous drop for the second day in a row. The AUD/USD exchange rate decreased as the US dollar found strength amid efforts to reopen the US government.
Despite the current drop, the Australian dollar might see some recovery due to the cautious outlook regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policies. On Wednesday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser mentioned, “Our best guess is that monetary policy remains restrictive, but the committee continues to discuss this.” He emphasized that any shift toward a less restrictive policy could significantly influence future decisions.
At the Australian Superannuation Funds Association (ASFA) conference in Broadbeach, RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones expressed concerns that markets are underestimating geopolitical risks and that global valuations seem rather complacent. He pointed out early signs of fragmentation in central banks’ gold reserves.
Support for USD as government shutdown nears resolution
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar’s performance against six major currencies, has ended a five-day decrease and was trading around 99.50. Attention is now directed towards upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller, Rafael Bostic, and Stephen Milan.
- The U.S. Senate has successfully passed legislation to end the government shutdown. The House is anticipated to vote on the bill Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for approval, paving the way for the government to reopen, employee salaries to be issued, and economic data to be released.
- On Monday, President Trump endorsed a bipartisan deal aimed at ending the government shutdown, suggesting that a reopening could happen soon. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that he expected President Trump to sign the bill if it passes Congress.
- President Trump also predicted inflation could hit 1.5% “soon,” a figure that has eluded the U.S. economy for almost four years, especially since it exceeded this mark in February 2021. This inflation rate is notably lower than the long-term 10-year average for the U.S.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted on Monday that the impact of the government shutdown on the economy is worsening. He commented that inflation has progressed significantly and anticipates that prices will drop in the months ahead.
- Employment figures fell in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, while consumer sentiment hit a three-and-a-half-year low in early November, leading to increasing expectations for policy adjustments. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 68% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
- China’s Ministry of Commerce announced plans to temporarily lift its ban on exports of certain “dual-use items” related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and carbide materials to the U.S. This suspension will be in effect from Sunday until November 27, 2026. Given that China is Australia’s primary trading partner, fluctuations in its economy could significantly affect the Australian dollar.
- The National Bureau of Statistics in China reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for October, recovering from a 0.3% drop in September, with the market consensus showing a flat expectation. The CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared to a 0.1% rise a year prior. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped 2.1% year-on-year in October, following a 2.3% decline in September, slightly exceeding market expectations.
- Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence surged by 12.8% in November to 103.8, according to the University of Melbourne, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since February 2022. This rebound follows a 3.5% drop in October and represents the strongest non-pandemic confidence levels in seven years, as economic conditions seem to be improving and external risks are diminishing.
Australian dollar tests 9-day EMA support near 0.6500
On Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair was around 0.6520. A technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, showing sideways movement. Nevertheless, it’s hovering near the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting a neutral short-term momentum.
If the pair moves below the 9-day EMA at 0.6520 and subsequently breaks above the important psychological level of 0.6500, this could weaken the short-term price momentum, drawing the AUD/USD closer to the lower end of the rectangle around 0.6470, nearing the five-month low of 0.6414 recorded on August 21st.
Conversely, on the upside, the AUD/USD pair might aim for the 50-day EMA at 0.6536. A breakout above this point could enhance the medium-term price momentum and allow the AUD/USD to explore the upper rectangular area around 0.6630. Further advancements could lead it to reach a 13-month high of 0.6707 achieved on September 17th.
Australian dollar price today
The table below illustrates today’s percentage change in the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major currencies, indicating that the Australian dollar is currently the weakest against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | australian dollar | new zealand dollar | swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.13% | 0.27% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.14% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.31% | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.28% | -0.27% | -0.28% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.01% | -0.00% | -0.00% | |
| australian dollar | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.27% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.01% | |
| new zealand dollar | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.00% | |
| swiss franc | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
The heat map illustrates the percentage fluctuation between major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column while the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, selecting Australian Dollars from the left and moving along the horizontal line to US Dollars shows the percentage change in the corresponding box which represents AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
