Simply put
- Crypto prices are declining, and many analysts are adjusting their forecasts to reflect a more pessimistic outlook.
- Most analysts now think that Solana won’t hit a new all-time high before the end of this year.
- There’s an expectation that gold will outperform Ethereum, by about $5,000, especially after Ethereum’s recent drop.
The crypto market has seen another decline, with Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 on Thursday. This drop has, in turn, affected other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana.
As a result, bear predictions have been on the rise among Myriad prediction market users, causing significant shifts in market odds as uncertainty continues to loom.
Let’s look at some noteworthy developments from the past week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of DASTAN, the parent company of Decrypt.)
Gold vs ETH: Which will reach $5,000 first?
Market open: October 15th
Market ends: open until resolved
Volume: $74,000
Link: The latest odds are “Gold vs ETH: Which will reach $5,000 first?” Market
Gold is often compared to Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” but now forecasters are curious about whether gold will hit $5,000 before Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency.
For a while, many were leaning towards ETH, likely due to its potential for more volatility, although that confidence is dipping as the overall crypto market declines.
Currently, ETH is trading at $3,181, which is quite a ways off from its peak of nearly $5,000 back in August. This shift has prompted a change in the odds — gold is now favored at 51.4% to reach $5,000 first.
Interestingly, just a couple of weeks ago, ETH was considered a 76% favorite as gold’s prices began to settle. Lately, however, gold has surged by about 3% last week and is now at $4,173, only 20% away from that $5,000 target.
Institutional interest in ETH is visible, especially with BitMine Immersion Technologies making significant acquisitions, yet technical analysis suggests further declines may be on the horizon for ETH.
What’s next? Gold remains strong despite the market’s downturn. Will ETH catch up?
What is the highest price for new Solana by the end of the year?
Market open: August 6th
Market ends: December 30th
Volume: $232,000
Link: The latest odds are “Will Solana hit another all-time high by the end of the year?”
Earlier this year, the excitement around Solana peaked when it gained recognition as an official meme coin on the blockchain, leading its token, SOL, to reach a record $293.31.
Since then, however, Solana has significantly dropped, losing nearly 52% and is currently valued at $141.63.
Following another drop on Thursday, forecasters are growing increasingly skeptical about Solana’s chances of hitting new all-time highs this year.
Predictions show only a 10.4% chance that SOL will break its previous record before 2026 rolls in.
This likelihood has plummeted by about 46% over the last month, down from 56% on October 10. In September, the chance was even higher at 65%.
Market dynamics, particularly around ETFs and institutional demand, have impacted these forecasts, but for now, optimism seems low.
What’s next? Ending the government shutdown and potential interest rate cuts in December might offer some positive catalysts for the market.
Will the Fed change interest rates exactly twice in 2025?
Market open: August 31st
Market ends: December 29th
Volume: $33,900
Link: The latest odds are “Will the Fed change interest rates exactly twice in 2025?”
Recently, Jerome Powell announced a rate cut in October, lowering rates by 0.25%. Surprisingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum took a hit following this news, especially as Powell suggested that further cuts in December aren’t guaranteed.
This uncertainty is influencing market odds on whether the Fed will make “exactly two” changes in rates within 2025.
With the Fed having cut rates in both September and October, the market anticipates a slight possibility of holding off on cuts in December.
Historically, “no” was the favored option, as most believed a third cut was on the way. Now, as that prospect becomes unclear, odds have shifted to 45% in favor of two cuts, rising about 16% just this past week.
The ongoing government shutdown further complicates matters, clouding the macroeconomic environment, which could hinder the Fed’s decision-making as the year wraps up.
Will Powell take his time in making further decisions? Forecasters are adopting a cautious stance.
What’s next? The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for December 9th and 10th.
