Back in June 2018, as the NFL Draft approached, friends chatted about the promising quarterback class. Among the contenders was Baker Mayfield, a bold Heisman winner from Oklahoma. He had undeniable talent but faced questions regarding his mechanics and decision-making under pressure. Then there was Josh Allen from Wyoming, known for his physical gifts like height and mobility, yet concerns lingered about his accuracy and ball security.
Fast-forward to Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, and these two are set to clash for the MVP title, both leading their divisions with a 6-3 record.
The Buccaneers, despite being an efficient team, lost two of their last four games against tough opponents like the Lions and Patriots. They seem to have lost some of their offensive spark. Injuries to key players, especially Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving, have hampered their scoring ability.
Rashard White’s performance in the run-and-pass game has also suffered, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The standout rookie, Emeka Egbuka, could shine in the absence of these injured players, but he faces a Bills secondary that has allowed one of the fewest catches to wide receivers.
In light of this, Coach Josh Grizzard might lean on the Bills’ run defense, currently allowing 147 yards per game, to help manage the game pace and protect Mayfield.
The Bills are looking to recover from a tough 30-13 loss to the Dolphins the previous week. Although Allen has traditionally extended drives, his passing game has struggled lately. The team’s pass attempts ranked 29th overall, yet they manage to gain 7.2 net yards per passing drive. This is largely due to their shift towards running plays, with James Cook standing out and being a key factor in the team’s success when he exceeds 100 yards.
Interestingly, Allen is also among the top quarterbacks in rushing yards, ranking fourth.
Can weather impact the game?
I’m curious to see how Buffalo’s notoriously unpredictable weather will affect this matchup. Forecasts predict sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts possibly hitting over 30 mph, all accompanied by rain or snow. While the Bills have been consistent against the spread in four of their last five games, the Bucs have had a decent run in two of their last three. Regardless of the talent on the field, some games seem better suited for quieter scripts—especially near the Canadian border in mid-November.
Based on these observations, I’m leaning towards the under, with a line of 47.
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