USD rises while stocks fall as concerns grow on November 17

November 17, 2025

Market Update

Gold prices dropped by $58, or 1.44%, settling at $4,024.79.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note decreased by 2.1 basis points to 4.129%. The yield for 2-year notes saw a smaller dip of 0.8 basis points to 3.6059%.
WTI crude oil prices fell by $0.33, which is a 0.55% decrease, bringing the price to $59.76.
The US dollar gained strength against all major currencies. Specifically, the Australian dollar declined by 0.80% and the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.53%, making them the weakest performers.

On the stock front, US stocks saw a continued decline after briefly attempting to rally in the morning. A surprisingly strong Empire manufacturing report (18.1 compared to the expected 5.8) has contributed to the sentiment that robust economic data could lead the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance, particularly following a 50 basis point interest rate cut in 2025. With inflation hovering around 3% compared to the target of 2%, and a stable employment outlook, hopes for a December rate cut have diminished significantly—from almost 100% to about 35%. Millan, a Trump appointee, advocates for a more proactive approach from the Fed. While some members may hope inflation will decrease, reaching that 2% mark seems far off for most. Employment at least remains steady for now. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth forecast for Q3 has risen slightly, from 4.0% to 4.1%.

Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson made remarks that seemed cautiously dovish, emphasizing the importance of a careful approach as monetary policy nears neutral interest rates amid increasing risks to employment. He supported last month’s quarter-point rate cut due to rising labor market concerns and noted that current policies still feel somewhat restrictive. Jefferson pointed out that in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted; inflation risks seem to be easing, but potential downside risks to employment are becoming more apparent, particularly since tariff impacts have looked temporary. However, he acknowledged that there hasn’t been much progress in reducing inflation, which remains just below 3%. The job market remains mixed, with some companies pulling back on hiring while others are still expanding. He concluded with a note of uncertainty as the next meeting approaches.

In today’s market close, the final numbers read:

Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 557.24 points, or 1.18%, to close at 46,590.24
S&P Index dropped by 61.70 points, or 0.92%, ending at 6,672.41
Nasdaq decreased by 192.51 points, or 0.84%, settling at 22,708.07

Nvidia is set to report its earnings on Wednesday after trading ends. The stock price fell by $3.57, or 1.88%, and is now at $186.60, down about 13.82% from its recent peak.

Concerns permeating through stock prices are mirrored in Bitcoin’s performance. It’s currently trading at its lowest point since April 22 and has fallen below the $100,000 mark, down significantly from a peak of $126,272 on October 6. Today’s low was recorded at $91,168, reflecting a drop of roughly 28% from its all-time high.

Interestingly, there hasn’t been a flight to safety in gold, which is down due to the strengthened US dollar. It had a tough session today.

The US dollar started the day strong, oscillating during trading. Empire manufacturing data has been quite impactful, and traders are gearing up for more upcoming releases, including the September jobs report and new jobless claims. Below is a summary of the significant releases expected this week.

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Import and export price index (October)
Industrial production (October)
Capacity Utilization (October)
NAHB Housing Market Index (November)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (August) – delayed
New housing construction numbers, including housing starts and building permits (October)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Index (November)
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes (October Meeting)

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Employment situation report (September) – critical delayed reports including non-farm payrolls
Real profit (September)
Used home sales results (October)
Weekly count of new unemployment insurance applications (latest week)

Friday, November 21, 2025

S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (November – Preliminary)
S&P Global Flash Services PMI (November – Preliminary)
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (November – Revised)

Looking at currency changes, the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed the most significant depreciation, reflecting the current risk-off sentiment. The following is a snapshot of how major currencies moved against the USD: