Thursday, November 20, 2025: Analysis of EUR/USD exchange rate
Summary of today’s EUR/USD analysis
- Overall trend: Bearish.
- Support levels for EUR/USD today: 1.1500 – 1.1440 – 1.1380
- Resistance levels for EUR/USD today: 1.1590 – 1.1650 – 1.1780
Trading signals for EUR/USD:
- Consider buying EUR/USD at the support level of 1.1460 with a target price of 1.1800 and a stop loss at 1.1390.
- Consider selling EUR/USD at the resistance level of 1.1665 with a target price of 1.1400 and a stop loss at 1.1780.
Today’s technical analysis of EUR/USD:
During yesterday’s trading session, the EUR/USD pair dropped by -0.48%, reaching a support level of 1.1517. Although it has stabilized around this level, the bearish trend may continue into the weekly close. The U.S. dollar has shown strength against other major currencies as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts diminished following the latest Federal Reserve meeting in 2025. The minutes of this meeting, released yesterday, revealed divisions among Fed members regarding the possibility of future rate cuts.
On the other hand, many believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely maintain current interest rates until the end of 2026, as inflation remains near its 2% target, economic growth appears steady, and unemployment is at historic lows. The ECB has kept rates unchanged for three consecutive meetings, including in October.
Continued bearish signals for EUR/USD
According to trading in the foreign exchange market, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD could strengthen if it dips below the 1.1500 support level. The recent losses have pushed the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closer to the 40 mark, which may lead it toward oversold conditions if selling pressure escalates. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is trending downward, further indicating bearish control. The EUR/USD trend is likely to continue downward until the upcoming U.S. jobs report, which could significantly affect Federal Reserve policy after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
From a technical standpoint, achieving a bullish scenario for EUR/USD would require movement toward the psychological resistance level of 1.1800. If that doesn’t happen, the general outlook will remain bearish.
Trading advice:
For traders, EUR/USD is facing selling pressure and may reach even lower levels before considering a buy opportunity.
Prospects for a rate cut in December 2025
A majority of Federal Reserve policymakers showed support for additional interest rate cuts in late October, as per yesterday’s released minutes. However, not all are in favor of a reduction at the December meeting. Some officials suggested that it might be “appropriate” to maintain current rates for the rest of the year, highlighting the divisions within the central bank regarding its next move.
Typically, any rate cuts by the Fed can lead to lower borrowing costs for things like mortgages and auto loans over time.
Overall, Fed officials are significantly split on what poses a greater risk to the economy: weak job growth or high inflation. If job market slowdowns are deemed a more serious threat, further cuts were likely. Conversely, if inflation remains a concern, high rates may persist or even increase. During a press conference following the end of the October 28-29 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out the deep divisions among the 19 members of the policy-setting committee. The meeting minutes were published after the usual three-week wait.
At the same time, the minutes noted that there were “widely differing views” on whether rates should be cut at the scheduled Dec. 9-10 meeting. The central bank previously lowered its base interest rate from 4.1% to around 3.9% at its October meeting, marking the second cut within the year. The Fed had anticipated three cuts for the year, in September, October, and December.
