Potential Backfire from Law Against France’s National Rally
A new proposed law aimed at undermining France’s populist National Rally might have unexpected consequences. Recent polls indicate that Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s vice president, could win the next presidential election against other leading candidates.
In March, Marine Le Pen, who has run for president three times, received what some are calling a “political death sentence.” She was banned from holding public office for five years due to allegations of misusing EU funds. While the National Rally leaders are appealing this decision, they have pledged to support Bardella if the ban is upheld. This means that, possibly, Bardella could step into the spotlight as the party’s leading figure.
Interestingly, the Odoxa poll didn’t account for Le Pen, who is currently barred from competition. Instead, it shows Bardella, at just 30 years old, potentially leading the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron, who also cannot run in 2027 due to term limits.
Polls suggest that Bardella could capture between 35 and 36 percent of the vote in the first round, depending on who else enters the race. His approval rating significantly outpaces his rivals, with former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe trailing considerably at around 17%, as reported by le figaro.
This system in France was intentionally structured after World War II to counter populism. It allows various establishment parties to back candidates they believe can effectively oppose outsiders who make it to the second round. However, Bardella, with his fresh and engaging presence, appears to be a serious contender capable of breaking that traditional barrier.
An Oksoda poll supports this, predicting that Bardella would likely defeat his principal rival in a second-round matchup. He is projected to beat Philippe by a narrow margin of 53 to 47 percent, and he’ll likely fare even better against liberal former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, with predictions of 56 to 44 percent. The gap gets wider if a leftist candidate challenges him, with Bardella leading by substantial margins over socialists and far-left candidates.
While these numbers may offer optimism for National Rally supporters, it’s still early. Nearly a third of surveyed voters expressed they were undecided, and many are questioning whether Macron will achieve his objectives before his term ends, especially with frustrations growing about the government’s frequent failings and legislative standstill.
A separate survey from CSA Le Journal du Dimanche revealed that 67 percent of the French population desires an early presidential election, a sentiment echoed strongly among National Rally supporters, where the percentage shoots up to over 90.
As Bardella prepares for the election in a year and a half, he has a chance to solidify his leadership within the sovereigntist movement in France. His potential victory in 2027 could trigger a wave of populist successes across Western Europe, including anticipated changes in the UK and Germany.
