NATO’s Military Chief Discusses Deterrence Strategies

NATO’s top military officer has highlighted the potential role of a “first strike” as a “defensive action,” suggesting that the alliance will face pressures on its ability to maintain credible deterrence in the future.

Admiral Giuseppe Cabo Dragone, who took over as chair of the NATO Military Committee earlier this year, emphasized the effectiveness of NATO’s intensified deterrence measures against Russia so far this year. He implied that further advancements should be considered.

In comments reported by a financial publication in London, Admiral Dragone, a former Harrier pilot, referenced destructive operations carried out by Russian oil tanker fleets against European nations in 2023 and 2024. Interestingly, these activities diminished after NATO initiated Operation Baltic Sentry. Incidents involving commercial ships linked to Russia and China frequently occurred, with vessels dragging anchors and severing underwater cables. While each instance might seem like an accident, the frequency over the past year has been rather concerning.

In response to what European NATO members considered deliberate sabotage as part of a hybrid warfare strategy—though not a full-scale war—the alliance has deployed warships, surveillance aircraft, and drones to bolster detection and deterrent capabilities. Admiral Dragone remarked on the success of this approach, stating, “Nothing has happened since the inception of Baltic Sentry. So this means this deterrent is working.”

He also touched on the need for changes in cyber strategy, saying, “We’re kind of reactive when it comes to cyber.” Dragone expressed interest in moving toward a more proactive stance rather than simply reacting to threats.

Ultimately, he stated, “We’re researching everything.” He proposed that NATO should rethink its traditional mindset and potentially see aggression as a form of defense, encouraging a thorough analysis of how deterrence could be maintained—whether through retaliation or first strikes—in light of future pressures.

Admiral Dragone pointed out that Russia’s authoritative governance allows it to act without the ethical constraints faced by NATO and its members. He remarked, “We have far more constraints because of ethics, laws and jurisdiction. That’s a problem.” While he didn’t claim that NATO was on the losing side, he acknowledged that the alliance is in a more challenging position.

He speculated that this might result in NATO countries being “more aggressive relative to their partners,” raising questions about legal and jurisdictional frameworks concerning actions taken in defense.

In recent years, the chair of the Armed Services Committee has been linked with strong warnings regarding potential conflict with Russia. Former chairman Admiral Rob Bauer, for instance, urged European allies to get ready for a “wartime scenario,” indicating that the situation might be more complicated than anticipated.

In 2024, Admiral Bauer cautioned that a possible conflict between Russia and NATO could become a “society-wide event” and emphasized that the West isn’t fully prepared to handle it. He remarked on the necessity for the public to recognize their role, saying, “Society is part of the solution… We need water, we need radios with batteries, we need flashlights with batteries to ensure survival in the initial hours. Simple things like that are crucial.”