Nothing seems to make sense in the NFL this season. It’s like up is down, and down is up. The Browns continue to struggle, while the Chiefs, despite their current downturn, have the potential to improve. If you’re trying to wrap your head around 2025, you’re not alone. Honestly, it’s a tough task to predict outcomes in the league week by week. This unpredictability has led us to a situation where it’s hard to determine which teams are actually strong or weak as the playoffs approach.
In moments like these, you’re faced with a couple of choices. You can either just shrug and say, “This is all nonsense,” or you can dive into some analysis to figure out which teams might actually be good, or not.
At a site specializing in stats, there’s a new two-axis NFL list available. It plots offensive and defensive performance metrics, showing how all 32 teams compare. For those who might not know, EPA stands for “Expected Points Added.” It simplifies each play to a number that represents how effective it was in contributing to scoring or preventing it. This metric is quite valuable, as it encompasses various factors like success rate and turnovers into a single statistic.
Looking at this data can be intriguing. For example, having a big play against a strong Bengals defense doesn’t carry the same weight as one against a struggling Browns defense. Similarly, stopping a dominant player like Matthew Stafford is far more crucial than intercepting a pass from someone with less experience, like J.J. McCarthy. This is why simply looking at wins and losses doesn’t always align with EPA rankings; the schedule plays a significant role. Football is generally unpredictable—just ask the Panthers—but the EPA metric can still help in forecasting a team’s potential performance when those playoff games arrive.
Now, before we separate contenders from pretenders, let’s make a few general observations.
Part 1: There are no “elite” teams this year.
The Rams might come close to being top-tier, yet they’re still not quite there. I mean, isn’t it interesting how that works? Perfect teams are not the norm. In fact, since EPA rankings started in 2016, just one team—the 2019 Baltimore Ravens—had a clear upper hand on both offense and defense in the regular season. They were great but ended up losing unexpectedly in the playoffs.
Number 2: The Titans are a historically bad team.
There’s really no need to sugarcoat it; they are just not doing well.
Number 3: The Chiefs are the most dangerous team in contention.
What really marked the Chiefs’ trip to the Super Bowl last year was their success in close games. This season, however, things have flipped—they’re currently 2-6 in one-score games. With such slim margins, Kansas City remains a formidable team, potentially the most feared playoff contender if they can make it.
Contender vs. Pretender
We assess a team’s composite EPA ranking against its conference win-loss record. When both are aligned at the top, that’s a solid contender for the championship. But if there’s a significant gap, it might indicate a pretender. So, when a team has a higher EPA but a worse record, that’s a sign of weakness; conversely, the opposite scenario suggests their record is misleadingly good.
Contenders: Patriots (-1), Bills (+4), Colts (+5)
Pretenders: Jaguars (+5), Ravens (+5), Broncos (+3)
The Patriots are performing well, as their record shows, while the Colts have remained strong, even if they’ve cooled off recently. On the flip side, the weakness in the AFC South and North is glaring. Despite being mediocre teams, the Jaguars and Ravens are still in prime playoff positions simply due to their divisions.
Favorites: Rams (-1), Seahawks (-2), Packers (-5)
Pretenders: Buccaneers (+5), Bears (+4)
The NFC West is fierce this year. It’s likely that three teams from that division will head into the playoffs, and they might each win at least one playoff game. What’s curious is the pretender status of teams like the Buccaneers who have not been playing well on either side of the ball. And then there’s the Bears. Chicago fans might be upset, but their favorable schedule makes them look better in the standings than their actual performance would suggest.
