New Talent from Japan in Major League Baseball
Every year, a fresh wave of talent enters Major League Baseball from Japan, and this year is no different. With three impressive players posted and ready to be signed by major league teams, many believe the 2020s could mark a golden era for Japanese baseball. The success of the 2023 WBC championship and a key player from Japan on the Dodgers adds to this optimistic outlook.
The three significant names this time around are Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami, and Kazuma Okamoto. Let’s break down their profiles, potential team fits, and contract projections.
In recent years, several Japanese pitchers have transitioned smoothly into MLB. Names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kodai Senga, and Shota Imanaga have paved the way, and now we have Tatsuya Imai. At 27, he posted an impressive ERA of under 2 in NPB last season and showcased an exciting pitching style.
Some might expect Imai to follow the trend and join the Dodgers, but he’s made it clear that’s not his goal. In a recent interview, he expressed a desire to compete against them, which could win over fans of whichever team signs him.
When it comes to his pitching arsenal, there’s a lot to admire. His primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, has a 50% usage rate and an average speed of 94.8 mph—definitely a tough pitch for batters to hit. What’s intriguing is that he releases it from a lower height than the MLB average, adding a layer of deception.
Evaluators have likened his fastball to those of pitchers like Luis Castillo and Joe Ryan, who both have similarly low-slot pitches that challenge hitters. Imai’s fastball could provide a solid foundation, although there’s some debate about how its characteristics will hold up with different MLB balls.
His most notable secondary pitch is a slider that he throws about one-third of the time, boasting a whiff rate of 46% in NPB. This slider is unique as it moves in what some describe as the “wrong direction,” which is a rarity but not impossible. Several pitchers use this type of slider, such as Dawli Moreta and Trey Yesavage.
Imai also features a variety of changeups and splitters, accounting for around 16% of his pitches. All of these pitches tend to generate swings and misses, making him a compelling option on the free agent market.
Contract prediction: $175 million over 7 years
Team fit: Mets, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Orioles
Kazuma Okamoto, who will turn 30 at the end of June, is considered a plug-and-play talent. With a well-rounded offensive profile, many are confident that his skills will translate successfully to MLB.
Throughout his 11 seasons in NPB, Okamoto hit 248 home runs and posted an .882 OPS. Remarkably, he’s maintained a streak of at least 27 home runs per season from 2018 to 2024. Although he missed some time this year due to injury, he still projects as a solid contact hitter, with his strikeout rate below 20% every season since 2020. Some projections suggest he could reach Gleyber Torres-level offensive production in MLB.
Defensively, Okamoto is capable at third base, although his athleticism is somewhat limiting. He’s also shown he can play first base and has experience in the corners of the outfield, which adds to his value.
He likely won’t command a $100 million contract, which expands his market appeal. Given his profile at a reasonable price, he could attract interest from numerous teams as he becomes a hot name during the winter meetings.
Contract prediction: $65 million over 4 years
Team fit: Red Sox, Pirates, Mets, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Angels
Munetaka Murakami – 1B/3B
Munetaka Murakami is currently the most notable Japanese free agent. He burst onto the scene with 36 home runs in 2019 at just 19 years old, establishing himself as a major talent.
His career reached new heights in 2022 when he hit 56 home runs and posted an OPS of 1.168. However, his performance has waned in recent years; while he still shows impressive power, questions linger regarding his swing mechanics and strikeouts.
Holding the title of NPB’s home run king doesn’t come without its downsides, as he has also led the league in strikeouts for the past two years with rates exceeding 28%. This raises concerns about how well he might adapt to MLB pitching.
While teams may hesitate to offer a $100 million contract given his strikeout history, Murakami’s raw power makes him a tantalizing prospect. History shows that players with high swing-and-miss rates have sometimes turned into great hitters due to their power potential.
Take, for example, A’s rookie Nick Kurtz, who struck out more than 30% of the time yet still posted an OPS over 1.000. Fans might overlook such imperfections if he delivers. Murakami has similar potential, but there are risks involved.
Defensively, Murakami’s play is limited; he’s played third base in Japan, but his skills there are not exceptional. It’s likely he’ll be shifted to first base or designated hitter in MLB, but he could become a formidable slugger.
Contract prediction: $95 million over 5 years
Team fit: Phillies, Orioles, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Angels
