Bitcoin’s New Moon Phase: A Shift in Trends
As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a new lunar cycle, it faces some statistical challenges. Historically, when November ends on a down note, Bitcoin usually struggles to regain momentum in December. This time, though—I think the situation feels quite different. Factors like market momentum, liquidity shifts, and deviations from past cycles suggest a break from the trend of bearishness typically seen in this season.
Key Observations
- Bitcoin’s typical bearish December might shift if leverage decreases and prices stabilize at crucial levels.
- Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity have taken a different path compared to the typical Bitcoin buying seen in previous bull markets.
- Bitcoin’s cycle structure is evolving due to spot ETF inflows and changes in global liquidity, which could affect the traditional halving cycle.
Understanding Seasonal Patterns and BTC Cycle Changes
The fourth quarter has historically shown strong seasonal returns for Bitcoin, often characterized by a weak December following a negative November. However, in 2025, the market metrics appear to diverge more than usual from these past trends.
Bitcoin’s price has risen above the monthly volume-weighted average price, suggesting a more organized distribution and a potential shift to a more stable trend. The significant drop in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has allowed for a reset in the market without drastically affecting spot inflows, creating a more conducive environment for future growth.
From a technical standpoint, what caught my attention is that a once significant liquidity cluster has flipped from downward liquidation in November, which was nearly $80,000, to an upward inefficiency environment. Currently, there are short positions amounting to $3 billion that will be liquidated if Bitcoin hits $96,000, which could rise to over $7 billion at $100,000.
This leads to the possibility that December’s price could be misaligned with Bitcoin’s historical performance curve. But then again, momentum can be misleading. Reports suggest a taker-buy ratio around 1.17, indicating more urgency than calm accumulation, which usually happens in crowded positioning scenarios. Some analysts pointed out that while aggressive buying is occurring, it doesn’t necessarily indicate sustained accumulation.
At the same time, the M2 velocity appears to be plateauing, implying that the overall economic engine might be slowing down even as risk assets keep climbing. This creates a rather noisy market environment, typical of late-stage cycles where market activities clash with dwindling economic signals.
In this complicated backdrop, Bitcoin’s effort to achieve its first ever positive December after a negative November will serve as a litmus test for whether current positioning can outweigh broader economic fundamentals.
Reassessing Traditional Cycles
For a while now, experts have been discussing how Bitcoin’s four-year cycle doesn’t fully align with the current market dynamics. Analyst Michael van de Poppe remarked that while the four-year cycle is still relevant, it doesn’t always meet the expected timelines anymore. The introduction of spot BTC ETFs has brought new structural elements that accelerate price discovery and elevate Bitcoin’s floor compared to earlier cycles.
He also mentioned that this phase seems similar to the long-term liquidity patterns of mid-2016 and late 2019, where risk assets gathered strength despite mixed macroeconomic indicators. Support signals, like the correlation between CNY/USD and ETH/BTC, typically rise earlier during an expansion rather than at the peak of cycles.
On another note, cyclical indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) have started to show improvement alongside gold’s performance, hinting that there may be a rebuilding of risk appetite from cyclical lows rather than a decline. Van de Poppe concluded, “I think if we combine the strength and vulnerabilities of the business cycle with Bitcoin’s cycles, the correlation becomes increasingly clearer. This current stage resembles early 2016 and late 2019, which suggests we are far from Bitcoin’s pinnacle, still in the last easy phase for cryptocurrencies.”
So, Bitcoin’s setup for December may hinge less on repeating historical trends and more on whether these emerging structural forces can outperform the cycles dictated by halvings. It’s certainly a space to keep an eye on.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Always remember that all trading carries inherent risks, and it’s crucial to conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions.
