Sen. John Cornyn falls behind Texas opponents Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt in GOP primary survey.

Sen. Cornyn Faces Tough Re-election Challenge

Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) is gearing up for what looks like a difficult campaign for a fifth full term in the Senate next year. Current polling suggests he’s trailing both major Republican rivals by significant margins.

A new survey by JL Partners, shared exclusively with The Post, indicates that among Republican primary voters, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 29% support, while both Cornyn and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt follow closely with 24% each.

Interestingly, over 20% of primary voters admitted they were unsure about their preferred candidate ahead of the March 3rd primary.

If no candidate secures a majority, the top two will advance to a runoff on May 26. However, the outlook doesn’t appear bright for Cornyn.

In a direct comparison, Paxton beats Cornyn by 14 points, garnering 45% to Cornyn’s 31%. In a potential runoff scenario against Hunt, Cornyn would still be behind by 11 points (43% to 32%).

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, remarked, “This race was one of the first we had to consider for 2026, and it’s particularly concerning for Cornyn. Despite his considerable spending advantage over Paxton and Hunt, he’s lagging and not showing much potential for growth.”

Johnson added that if either Hunt or Paxton were to drop out, they could significantly sway their supporters towards the other, indicating that Cornyn’s financial efforts alone might not suffice to change the race’s dynamics.

If Paxton were to withdraw, his supporters would back Hunt over Cornyn, 52% to 20%. Conversely, if Hunt exited the race, Paxton would receive 51% support from Hunt’s primary voters, leaving Cornyn with only 23%.

Should Cornyn announce his retirement, hypothetical polling shows Hunt slightly ahead of Paxton, at 37% to 35%.

At 73, Cornyn has also received the lowest favorability rating among the candidates, with only 46% of voters rating him as “very” or “somewhat” positive. In contrast, Paxton holds a 60% approval rating while Hunt is at 47%.

The JL Partners poll, conducted between December 1 and 3, surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.