Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the market:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing. We provide you with a summary of the top news from the US, along with market movements and analysis.
As the year draws to a close with just two weeks left and Christmas holidays approaching, many businesses in Hong Kong are running on reduced staff. In the crypto market, things seem to be shifting from momentum to more of a measurement phase. A recent insight from traders suggests there’s only a 2% chance that Bitcoin ETFs will exceed last year’s record inflow in 2025, according to a source.
This assessment circles around a straightforward calculation. Inflows for Bitcoin ETFs were at $33.6 billion in 2024, while this year’s total, as of mid-December, is nearing $22.5 billion. Given that there’s about $11 billion left to catch up, time is running short.
Yet, indications from last week point to a resurgence in ETF inflows, even as prices have softened and altcoins lagged. This suggests that, while the ambitious target of $33.6 billion might not be reached, ETFs are still playing a crucial role in risk management as the year comes to a close.
Data from a particular source shows that even with a drop in Bitcoin’s price from around $94,000, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows rebound to roughly $290 million in the week after a previous outflow.
Conversely, another report notes that while ETF trading volumes have dipped, this appears to reflect less speculative activity and more strategic positioning. Consequently, Bitcoin has been more resilient compared to a broader index, suggesting that ETFs are increasingly stabilizing the market during downturns instead of just driving prices up.
The gap of $11 billion compared to last year’s peak doesn’t signify a failure for ETFs. Rather, it indicates a shift in their narrative. In contrast to 2024, which was marked by explosive demand and one-off investments, 2025 is becoming defined by adjustments, changes in fees, and fluctuations tied to market volatility.
Solving the numerical puzzle has perhaps already been done, but surpassing the benchmark might not hold as much weight anymore. What’s more relevant are the applications of ETFs. They likely won’t have the same effect on driving cryptocurrency prices as they did initially.
Instead of amplifying price changes, they might be more focused on absorbing sell orders during market pullbacks, signifying a maturation of market infrastructure.
Market movements
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has shown more resilience than the larger crypto market, consolidating after its recent drop from around $94,000 and stabilizing in the $87,000 to $88,000 range.
Ethereum: Ether has not fared as well lately, dipping towards the $2,950-$3,000 range as selling pressure increases on riskier assets while Bitcoin sees more favorable rotations.
Gold: Gold prices climbed above $4,300 after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly shrank in December, increasing its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid heightened volatility in US manufacturing.
Nikkei 225: Most Asia-Pacific markets were down on Tuesday, following declines on Wall Street as investors moved away from US AI stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1.14%, and the TOPIX dropped by 1.05%.
Elsewhere in cryptocurrencies:
- Senate delays crypto market structure bill until next year.
- Bitcoin sees its active address count reach a one-year low, raising new concerns about block space demand.
