NFL playoff outlook: Implications of Patriots-Jets for AFC rankings in Week 17

Patriots’ Path to the Playoffs

The Patriots are in control of their playoff destiny within the division, with a championship battle on their hands against the Buffalo Bills. However, they will need some assistance from the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend.

Currently, New England holds the top spot in the division with a 12-3 record, just ahead of the Bills at 11-4. They had a missed opportunity against the Bills in Week 15, blowing a 24-7 halftime lead, but they remain in a strong position. If they win their next two games—starting with this weekend’s match against the Jets and concluding with a game against the Miami Dolphins—they will officially be division champions.

But there’s a chance for an early celebration. If the Patriots defeat the Jets and the Bills either lose or tie against the Eagles, New England will be crowned as the AFC East champions.

Additionally, the Patriots could still tie with the Jets and clinch if the Bills falter against the Eagles.

New England is also vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, although the Denver Broncos have the edge. Denver’s recent victory over the Kansas City Chiefs improved their record to 13-3. They also have a tiebreaker advantage over New England due to their common games, as the teams haven’t met this season.

A win is essential for the Patriots to keep their pursuit of the top seed alive. If they end up losing, their chances for the number one spot in the AFC will vanish.

On the flip side, the Jets are out of playoff contention, so there won’t be any tiebreaker situations to consider between the two teams in this matchup.

Still, the Jets could influence the race for the AFC East title. The Patriots currently lead the Bills by one game, and because both teams split their season series, the second tiebreaker would come down to their records within the division. New England stands at 3-1 in AFC East games so far (with games against the Jets and Dolphins left), while the Bills are at 3-2. If the Patriots lose to the Jets, it could open the door for a tie in division records, necessitating a third tiebreaker based on overall records in typical games. Right now, New England is 9-1, compared to the Bills at 9-2; a loss would bring New England down to 9-2.

This scenario could lead to the AFC East title being decided by a fourth tiebreaker based on the conference record, and entering Week 17, the Bills had a slight edge with an 8-3 mark compared to New England’s 7-3.