Market Analyst Warns of Potential Shifts for Bitcoin

A seasoned market analyst has issued a caution regarding certain technical patterns that might indicate a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. This follows a period where Bitcoin has consistently lagged behind gold, prompting traders to consider whether the prolonged increase in gold prices has highlighted the limitations of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset.

Significant Decline in Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has seen a sharp decline, dropping from 32 on October 5 to around 20 today—a decline of over 37%. This means that, earlier in October, one Bitcoin would purchase approximately 32 ounces of gold, but it now buys only about 20 ounces. The downward trend in this ratio has intensified as gold has rallied and Bitcoin prices have slipped beneath critical thresholds.

Recent daily readings suggest that a shift in momentum could be on the horizon. On November 21, the BTC/GOLD pairing hit a low of 20 with an RSI reading of 21.30. By December 1, a subsequent low was marked by a higher RSI of 26.83, and then another dip occurred around 19:00 on December 26, correlating with an RSI low of 32.21.

This indicates a notable bullish divergence in the daily timeframe for BTCUSD versus Gold.

It’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds as we move toward 2026.

Michael van de Poppe describes this formation as a “strong” bullish divergence on the daily chart. Traders are paying attention to this, as it suggests that selling pressure may be easing, even amid new price lows.

Technical Indicators Point to Easing Selling Pressure

Looking at weekly charts provides further context. The weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair has recently dipped to about 31.85. This level was reminiscent of the November 2022 drop following the FTX collapse, which marked a cycle’s bottom.

This report connects these RSI lows with those seen in 2015 and 2018. Altogether, the daily divergence and low weekly RSI suggest that the downward trend may be losing momentum. Still, such indications are never guaranteed, and market sentiment varies among investors.

Gold prices have surged remarkably, reportedly rising over 70% in 2025, while Bitcoin has experienced a decline of about 7% for the year by some measures. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $87,750, reflecting a 4.8% decrease since the start of the year.

The falling Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, coupled with Bitcoin’s continued struggles below the $100,000 mark, raises new questions about its classification as “digital gold” while gold achieves historic highs.

In the short term, investors appear to favor gold for its capital protection qualities, treating it as a refuge while its value climbs. Nevertheless, long-term holders are still optimistic about a potential Bitcoin rally if risk appetites shift back. Market observers believe that the near-term outlook may hinge on whether the BTC/GOLD ratio and price trend manage to stay above critical levels. Until that occurs, the signals would remain tentative.