The Tampa Bay Buccaneers edged out the Carolina Panthers with a score of 16-14 in their recent clash for the top spot in the NFC South.
However, they’ll need to hold off on any celebrations until Sunday.
With this win, Tampa Bay’s record is now 8-9, putting the Panthers at the same standing. Still, the title of division champion won’t be decided until after the New Orleans Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons. The final game could result in the Panthers seizing a district championship, or the Buccaneers clinching the division title.
Here’s what the upcoming Saints-Falcons game means for the NFC South.
Buccaneers Playoff Photos
Tampa Bay’s victory on Saturday gave them an 8-9 record, yet it wasn’t enough to claim the division just yet. The Panthers also sit at 8 wins and 9 losses.
Still, it was not sufficient to establish the Buccaneers as champions of the division, at least not immediately.
The situation becomes more complicated as the Falcons could also find themselves tied with both the Panthers and Buccaneers at 8-9. Atlanta heads into the final gameday of the 2025 NFL season with a record of 7-9, and a win against the Saints—who hold a 6-10 record—would elevate the Falcons to 8-9, placing them in the mix.
If all three teams end up with an 8-9 record, the first tiebreaker involves their head-to-head records. Tampa Bay’s latest victory has given them a 2-2 record in this context (1-1 against both the Panthers and Atlanta). Carolina, sporting a 3-1 head-to-head record, is ahead, thanks to a strong performance against Atlanta while dividing their matches with the Buccaneers.
As for Atlanta, they currently stand at 1-3 in head-to-head matchups.
So, if the Buccaneers defeat the Panthers on Saturday, and the Falcons win against the Saints to match Tampa Bay’s 8-9 record, things could quickly get complicated with a three-way tiebreaker favoring the Panthers.
On the other hand, if the Saints manage to win or tie, the Falcons will wrap up the season with either a 7-10 or 7-9-1 record. In that case, the Buccaneers and Panthers would again tie for first with 8 wins and 9 losses. This would lead to a second tiebreaker scenario, which is based on their division records, allowing Tampa Bay’s recent win to keep them even with the Panthers.
The final tiebreaker assesses overall season records, and Tampa Bay has the upper hand with a previous tiebreaker win over Carolina. A victory for the Saints tomorrow could see the Buccaneers advancing to the playoffs.
Despite their defeat to Tampa Bay, the Panthers still hold a shot at claiming the NFC South, if the Falcons happen to defeat the Saints, leading to a three-way tie for the division title.
Since the first tiebreaker hinges on head-to-head records, Carolina’s strong record against the Falcons and their split with Tampa Bay gives them an edge—3-1 against both teams compared to Tampa Bay’s 2-2 and Atlanta’s 1-3.
If this scenario plays out, Carolina would move on to the playoffs.
This makes tomorrow’s game particularly crucial for the Panthers and their fans.
Here’s how the NFC South standings look after Tampa Bay’s win against Carolina:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
- Carolina Panthers (8-9)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-9) – e
- New Orleans Saints (6-10) – e
