Michael Saylor, the Executive Committee Chairperson of Strategy Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: MSTR), recently commented on Bitcoin, suggesting that the stock is somewhat “interesting.” However, traders on Polymarket believe there’s a 76% likelihood the company will be excluded from the MSCI index by March 31st.
Saylor also highlighted that MSTR’s option interest-to-market capitalization ratio is at 86.2%, which is notably high compared to its derivatives exposure. For reference, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is at 22%, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) at 10.4%, and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) at 7.2%. These figures illustrate just how disproportionate MSTR’s derivatives position is in relation to the overall market.
The major tech players such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are all clustered lower, typically around 3-4%. This context emphasizes the stark contrast between MSTR’s situation and its peers.
Looking ahead, a substantial option expiration on January 2nd may lead to increased short-term volatility. Yet, despite a rise in options trading, MSTR’s performance over the past year has fallen behind that of larger companies.
Traders are currently closely following Strategy Inc.’s narrative, especially as 2026 nears. The 76% chance of being removed from the MSCI index mirrors ongoing uncertainties regarding classification and eligibility, which appears more than just temporary concerns. Simultaneously, confidence seems to be waning regarding a new Bitcoin disclosure.
There’s a 64% probability that MicroStrategy will reveal it holds 680,000 BTC or more by January 31st, though this is lower than previous expectations. The pricing indicates that traders foresee pressures on the stock emerging sooner rather than benefiting from any short-term gains tied to Bitcoin acquisition.
Interestingly, even though MSTR is up by 3.70% today, it remains in a downtrend, having dropped 66% from its late July peak near $460. The 20 EMA stands at $167.67 as the nearest resistance, with the 50 EMA at $202.78. Furthermore, the Supertrend indicator has turned bearish at $181.47, reinforcing the downtrend. The trend line from last November continues to constrain any potential upward movements.
Recent price movements suggest that MSTR is consolidating in the $150-$160 range, with lower volatility that could potentially lead to a significant directional shift.
