Chile’s Falling Fertility Rate Hits Record Low

Recent figures from Chile’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) revealed that the country’s fertility rate has plummeted to its lowest point ever, now sitting at just 0.97 children per woman.

The decline in births began back in 2010. Last year, the rate was reported at 1.06 children per woman, and if the current trajectory continues, it’s projected to further decrease to 0.89 by 2028.

Miguel Ojeda, who heads demographic statistics at INE, predicts that by 2028, deaths will outnumber births, signaling the start of negative population growth.

Chile’s population is anticipated to peak at 20,150,948 by 2026, after which it is expected to drop to 20,643,490 by 2035. Furthermore, projections suggest that by the mid-2070s, it could fall to about 16,972,558.

Ricardo Vicuna, INE’s director, highlighted that life expectancy has risen significantly, from 74.6 years in 1992 to a projected 81.8 years in 2025.

Looking ahead, life expectancy might reach 88.4 years by 2070, with an estimated 42.6% of the population being 65 or older. This shift presents challenges for sustaining the economy and funding social welfare programs amid such demographic changes.

“This blend of low birth rates and increased longevity has reshaped Chile’s demographics,” he noted.

Currently, Chile has one of the lowest birth rates globally, even lower than countries like Japan, which are highly concerned about similar demographic trends. While the causes parallel those in other developed nations—such as women increasingly opting not to have children due to expanded education and career prospects—the situation has escalated remarkably fast in Chile.

Martina Jopo, a sociologist at Catholic University, remarked on the rapid shift, noting that what took decades in Europe is occurring in Chile within just a decade or two.

She identified two main factors behind this demographic shift: the swift acceptance of contraceptives and the removal of university tuition fees in 2008. Jopo also pointed out that the Chilean government has not made the same efforts as some other nations to lower the costs associated with childbirth and childcare.

As men in Chile are increasingly stepping back from fatherhood, many women are postponing or avoiding motherhood. Reports indicate that vasectomies in Chile rose nearly tenfold between 2013 and 2023.

A United Nations report highlighted that last year, the birth rate across South America dipped below the 2.1 threshold needed to maintain a stable population, a stark contrast to the 1990s when families tended to have three or four children. Furthermore, one in ten countries worldwide are experiencing “very low” birth rates, similar to Chile’s situation. For context, the current birth rate in the U.S. stands at 1.6, which was Chile’s figure just a few years ago.