NASA’s Moon Mission Progress

Back in 2001, just before my last shuttle mission, I asked NASA’s chief of human spaceflight about when we might return to the moon. He told me, “Oh, probably not until 2010.” I was taken aback. Why was it taking such a long time to move from the Shuttle and the ISS to the Moon? We had landed there six times between 1969 and 1972.

NASA’s plans for a moon return, where valuable space resources await, have often stalled due to shifts in policy and leadership issues. Now, twenty-five years later, NASA is poised for a significant step forward. The massive Space Launch System booster is set to head to the launch pad to send Artemis II’s crew of four astronauts on a path nearly 5,000 miles above Earth.

The initial push to return to the moon with the Artemis program came during President Donald Trump’s administration. However, technological setbacks and insufficient funding have hampered progress. Artemis II will mark the first crewed test flight of the Orion spacecraft, a vital 10-day mission to test both the ship’s systems and the resilience of astronauts and mission controllers in an environment 240,000 miles from home. Successfully reaching the Moon would set the stage for the next crew to land, a potentially tricky operation.

While Artemis II won’t attempt a landing, the flight is still fraught with risks. Orion will venture into lunar space, a thousand times further than the distances astronauts typically navigate. For ten days, its crew will depend on newly developed life support systems, with the added tension that an emergency return could take several days. Accurate navigation around the moon will be crucial for a safe journey home, especially considering the extreme heat—up to 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit—during atmospheric re-entry.

During Artemis I’s unmanned atmospheric return in 2022, the Orion heat shield experienced unexpected cracking and erosion due to superheated gases. It took three years to comprehend this issue. In response, mission planners have adjusted Artemis II’s reentry path, and new NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has given the green light for its launch.

For Artemis II’s success, proving technical capabilities is crucial for securing ongoing funding from Congress and the president for the upcoming moon landing. Beyond ensuring Artemis II’s safety, Isaacman and his team will need to make key decisions soon regarding the lander that will one day take the future Artemis crew to the Moon’s surface.

NASA has chosen SpaceX’s Starship rocket as the lander for Artemis III. However, the program has faced significant delays and challenges in testing. Each launch of a Starship lander will need at least 15 additional launches to secure enough fuel for a lunar mission, and SpaceX is lagging on a promised robotic demonstration mission.

Isaacman is now revisiting lander designs, looking at other options possibly from Blue Origin or industry partners. One idea was even discussed in Congress by former administrator Mike Griffin. But time is tight as NASA must soon finalize a lander design for a mission expected in just a few years. Meanwhile, China is making strides with its plans to send astronauts to the moon by 2030.

In comparison, China appears to be moving ahead more swiftly. The Chinese Communist Party is deep into testing its own heavy-lift rocket, command module, and lander. If they successfully replicate Apollo 11’s achievements—something NASA currently cannot do—they would gain a significant strategic advantage, especially regarding lunar resources like polar ice.

For NASA to remain competitive, it needs strong leadership. This may mean shelving SpaceX’s plans in favor of a more pragmatic lander design. With Artemis II, three Americans and one Canadian will orbit the moon for the first time in over half a century. Establishing a lasting human presence on the Moon is even more challenging. Based on the ambitious goals of Artemis II, NASA must develop a plausible plan for the Artemis III lander to demonstrate its capability to reach the Moon and beyond.