Toy manufacturers are hoping that a series of major films set to release in 2026 will reignite demand, especially after last year’s tariffs from President Trump unsettled many producers.
In the next few months, audiences can expect over a dozen significant children’s films, including Toy Story 5, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, and a Minions sequel, which is raising optimism surrounding sales of toys and games.
“This year is definitely going to be the biggest year of entertainment since 2019, which had about the same number of movies released in 12 months,” noted Toy Book editor James Zahn. “There’s a lot of stuff coming out.”
Several films, such as the new Star Wars and Minions entries, along with a He-Man-themed project, were highlighted during the Super Bowl. Comparatively, 2019 also saw big releases like Angry Birds 2 and Frozen 2.
Many upcoming films are sequels or tied to existing franchises, which Zahn described as “comfort food” during tumultuous times.
The toy industry, valued at $45 billion, might see a resurgence in 2024 after experiencing declines in the previous two years. Last year, Lego sets, trading cards, and collectibles accounted for the majority of sales growth, per Circana’s data.
Retail sales are projected to rise by 6% in 2025, bouncing back from a 0.3% drop the year before, with a 3% increase in the number of toys sold, despite a 4% increase in prices.
“Without football cards, Lego, and Pokemon, the industry would have seen stagnation or worse last year,” analyst Gerrick Johnson mentioned, adding that this year could be strong if the films perform well. However, he also cautioned that movies no longer influence toy sales as decisively as they once did due to the plethora of content available to kids today.
Zahn remarked that the buzz surrounding home video releases has diminished since digital platforms became prevalent.
Five upcoming blockbuster-related merchandise will be showcased at the Toy Fair, the largest toy trade show in the U.S. It will occur from February 14 to February 17 in New York, attracting around 1,200 companies to exhibit their latest offerings.
The fair is expected to present licensed items from major films like Star Wars, Toy Story, and Masters of the Universe, among others.
Following the release of KPop Demon Hunters in June, many toy firms are scrambling to introduce products based on its popularity, especially since Mattel’s dolls and figures for this series are launching this summer.
Some significant franchise movies anticipated later include Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, and Supergirl.
adult charm
Companies are gearing up to market products aimed at adult collectors, who represent the largest segment of toy consumers, projected to account for 28% of the market by 2024. This trend remains robust, with toys priced between $30 and $70 seeing an 18% growth in 2025.
Pokemon was the top-selling toy brand last year, with trading cards and digital content raking in $2.5 billion, an increase of 87% compared to 2024.
“Pokémon is rapidly expanding and critical for our business,” commented Jeremy Padawer from Jazwares, which produces Pokémon figures and plush toys.
Meanwhile, traditional toys—like dolls and outdoor sports items—are struggling, with significant declines noted in sales across these categories last year. Sales of Barbie dolls, for example, dropped 17% at Mattel’s most recent quarter.
“Sales in traditional toy sectors are at best stagnant,” remarked Jay Foreman from Basic Fun, which has faced challenges due to tariffs and a lack of standout products.
Foreman’s company saw a decline in revenue from an expected $230 million to $182 million, impacted by tariffs rising to 145% in 2025, which caused supply chain delays.
Dorfman, from Super Impulse, echoed similar sentiments, noting that while retail sales might have risen, it came at the cost of manufacturers’ profits, emphasizing the widespread negative effects of tariffs.
As Super Impulse plans to increase prices by 5% this year following stagnant sales, the effects of declining sales have been broadly felt in the industry, with job reductions reported across the board.
Experts in the field suggest that companies anticipate stable tariffs moving forward and are hopeful that this year might be marked by significant innovation in the toy sector. “I think companies held back because they thought, why waste ammunition in 2025?” Johnson reflected.
