Decline in Asylum Approval Rates under Trump Administration

Representatives of former President Donald Trump have significantly lowered the success rate for economic immigrants seeking asylum in refugee courts, with only 10% of these immigrants winning their cases as of December 2025.

In contrast, under President Joe Biden, just over 50% of asylum applications were approved in the fall of 2023, even though most applicants were economic migrants who weren’t facing direct government persecution.

Winning asylum is crucial because it enables undocumented immigrants to compete for jobs and housing, secure green cards, apply for citizenship, and reunite with relatives still in their home countries through chain immigration. Around 2.3 million immigrants have been processed, amidst a community of at least 15 million undocumented individuals applying for asylum.

Experts believe that the asylum approval rate may drop further in 2026, as Attorney General Pam Bondi is expected to replace many pro-immigration judges who had supported a majority of asylum cases.

This decreasing rate of approval has significant implications for Trump’s agenda to deport more undocumented immigrants. If an asylum claim is denied, a judge can issue a “final deportation order” against the individual. Such orders can be quickly enforced by ICE, even amid protests from pro-immigration activists.

Trump’s ICE officials might also leverage low refugee admission rates to pressure detained immigrants into leaving the U.S. before their court dates. Aaron Reichlin Melnick, an advocate with the American Immigration Council, spoke out against this approach:

“You suddenly find yourself in detention, away from your job and family. ICE agents come to you and say, ‘If you sign this document and waive your right to a day in court, you can leave today. They even promise you money to do it.’”

“I’ve heard of offers going up to $5,000 to persuade people to skip court,” Reichlin mentioned in a conversation with advocate Bill Kristol. “The pressure is intense for detainees to give up once they find themselves in custody.”

Moreover, denials of asylum might discourage new migrants from risking the dangerous journey to the U.S., leading them to stay in their home countries and potentially contribute to local economies and democracy, especially in oppressive regimes like Nicaragua.

Data are expected to show an 80% reduction in asylum approvals by late 2025, as reported by the Transaction Records Access Clearinghouse.

Consequently, more judges are issuing final deportation orders, with only 3% of undocumented immigrants being allowed to remain legally in the country. Between October and December, judges issued 150,000 final orders and prepared for trial, with an estimated 600,000 expected in 2026.

Since the Obama administration, Democratic leaders have allowed millions of economic migrants to claim jobs in the U.S. under vague justifications of needing asylum due to oppression and poverty.

While many immigrants previously hesitated to apply for asylum, millions have taken up Biden’s offer to do so. Once they apply, they can legally work until their court date, which may be years away.

U.S. federal law primarily limits asylum to those demonstrating government oppression. However, many progressive advocates have encouraged judges to grant asylum to individuals from poor and unstable countries.

For instance, Judge Lawrence O. Berman, appointed by a Democratic administration, granted asylum to 90% of the 481 cases that came before him until his retirement party on February 4. Described as a highly respected and impartial judge, his departure left a significant mark.

Similarly, Judge Maureen O’Sullivan, who retired in mid-2025, approved 91% of the 1,145 asylum applications she handled from 2020 to 2025. Her advocacy background contributed to her prominence among pro-immigration groups.

In contrast, Trump’s appointed judges appear more skeptical of asylum requests, possibly facing direct pressure to adhere strictly to the law. Notably, one judge granted asylum to a Chinese man despite a general trend of denials for economic migrants.

These new judges have also been working to clear the substantial backlog of asylum cases built up during the Obama and Biden administrations; in 2022, it was anticipated that a backlogged claim would take over 1,100 days to process, whereas by late 2025, that had improved to less than 700 days.

Nonetheless, judges and ICE are still grappling with the immense task of addressing the surge of immigration since 2010. Approximately 3.5 million asylum cases remain unprocessed, along with 1.6 million “final orders” for individuals eluding capture, including about 800,000 with criminal convictions.