A political consultant involved in Democratic gerrymandering expressed concerns on Sunday that California may experience an entirely Republican gubernatorial election this November, which would be a significant setback for a party that has held a supermajority for over a decade.
KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zabala spoke with election analyst Paul Mitchell, who noted that Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton have about a 12% chance of making it to the November ballot. In California, all gubernatorial candidates are placed on the same ballot, irrespective of their party. Mitchell cautioned that while this scenario seems unlikely, it could spark broader ramifications for Democrats nationwide.
“This shouldn’t be brushed off. If I thought I had a 12% chance of getting into a car accident on the way here, I’d definitely opt for Zoom instead. It’s a matter of assessing risks, and Democrats should be wary of this slight possibility of two Republicans advancing, as it could severely impact their political landscape this fall,” Mitchell commented.
“This situation would greatly influence the outcome of Prop. 50 and the congressional races Republicans are likely to win. It alters voting behavior and affects other statewide contests as well,” he added. “The prospect of two Republicans on the November ballot could substantially diminish Democratic turnout, impacting not just the state but potentially the nation. So, consider this a wake-up call for those doubting the potential outcomes.”
Since Arnold Schwarzenegger took office in 2003, California has not elected a Republican governor, although recent polls indicate Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are neck and neck with other candidates. A February EMC Research poll found Mr. Bianco enjoying 21% support compared to Mr. Swalwell’s 18% and Mr. Hilton’s 17%.
Another poll from RBI Strategies & Research showed Hilton at 16% and Bianco slightly trailing at 15%. Support for Bianco was 18% according to a third recent poll by Public Policy Polling, funded by Democratic candidate Katie Porter.
In response to Mitchell’s cautionary notes, Bianco stated he seeks to “end the radical left’s reign of terror” in his community, emphasizing his long ties to the area and the adverse effects of policies that primarily impact those not affected by “wealthy career politicians.”
“Whether it’s one or two Republicans, we’re striving to win this election,” Bianco said. “Those looking to save California would prefer to see two Republicans make it through the primary, or at least want to see how things play out. To me, this is about protecting home, not chasing notoriety or a book deal.”
However, Hilton cast doubt on whether two Republicans would actually advance to the general election, criticizing Bianco for his past actions related to Black Lives Matter, a point he has raised since a gubernatorial debate in February.
“The idea that two Republicans will make it to the general election is unrealistic. Does anyone genuinely believe the Democratic machine would allow that? A far more likely outcome is seeing two Democrats emerge, like Matt Mahan, a newcomer backed by tech or Eric Swalwell or Katie Porter, who are essentially puppets of major unions,” Hilton remarked.
“The only way to avert that is for us to unify behind the strongest Republican candidate. I’m at the forefront in the polls and fundraising, and I dominated the first televised debate, while the other Republican candidate has a lot of baggage, especially concerning his past actions.”
Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell are prominent contenders in California’s gubernatorial race. However, Porter faced backlash in October 2025 after a controversial interview resurfaced, threatening to resign from CBS News, which intensified scrutiny around her. Amid this turmoil, Swalwell announced his run and earned backing from various influential California Democrats.
Polling data from EMC Research indicated Swalwell holds a 32% support rate among Democrats, while Porter is at 20%. Various surveys highlight similar trends among Democratic voters, although some analysts point out a lack of clear leadership within the California Democratic Party.
With Newsom withholding endorsements and many voters perceiving his focus has shifted to a potential 2028 presidential campaign, Zavala asked consultant Paul Mitchell whether support from the state Democratic Party could significantly alter the candidate rankings.
“If Democrats were to endorse one of these candidates, it could transform the race dramatically, but I’m not convinced that will happen. There’s a 60% threshold for that, I think,” Mitchell noted. “Each candidate has their own following, and I doubt that convention attendees will coalesce around any of them in the near term.”
