Negotiations in Geneva, backed by the U.S., have wrapped up without any significant breakthroughs, while Ukraine has been achieving notable territorial gains on the battlefield. Their recent counterattacks are reportedly the fastest in years, particularly along the southeastern front.
This shift in momentum may be linked to disruptions in Russia’s communication systems and changes in their operational tactics. These factors could bolster Ukraine’s position even as discussions remain stagnant.
Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian forces reclaimed around 78 square miles in just five days, marking their quickest territorial recovery in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions since the counteroffensive that began in 2023.
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Newton emphasized that Ukraine’s military capabilities shouldn’t be underestimated. He stated, “As this war continues, it’s easy for the world to overlook Ukraine’s commitment, creativity, and ethical stance. These are significant strengths against a larger, better-equipped foe.” He also noted that the idea of Russia being invincible is increasingly questionable, particularly under growing pressure.
In another development, Ukraine has claimed it conducted its first underwater drone strike, targeting a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk.
Fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region remains intense, with Russian forces gaining ground since mid-2025. However, open-source data suggest Ukrainian forces are making inroads around Khlyaipol and nearby areas. Analysts advise caution, as the situation remains fluid, and some parts of the front are not entirely secure.
The Institute for the Study of War recently noted that Ukrainian advances seem to be capitalizing on confusion within the Russian command structure. Reports suggest that issues with Russian battlefield communications, including limitations on the use of certain technologies, may be impacting their operations.
Drones are playing a growing part in the ongoing conflict. A special report indicated that Russia’s use of first-person drones aims to intentionally harm civilians, a tactic that could shape future warfare strategies.
Despite Ukraine’s successes, experts warn against interpreting these developments as a turning point in the conflict. Newton reiterated the vital importance of continued military support from Western nations, suggesting that Russia is likely to respond aggressively. He argued that the U.S. and Europe must maintain both defensive and offensive support for Ukraine.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward (retired) highlighted the interconnection between battlefield success and diplomacy, suggesting both sides aim to use their military gains to strengthen positions in negotiations. This complexity reveals that neither party appears ready to reach a settlement at this moment.
Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s intentions to hold elections after a ceasefire reflect a willingness to adapt, while Russia persists with its demands. Harward mentioned that if a feasible diplomatic solution is possible, the U.S. team is well-equipped to facilitate it, but it should be coupled with ongoing pressure on Russia.
As the conflict approaches two years since Ukraine’s last significant offensive, the nature of warfare remains characterized by slow territorial transitions rather than dramatic breakthroughs. Both sides continue to heavily rely on drones, artillery, and electronic warfare, inching forward village by village.
Newton concluded by stressing the necessity of increasing pressure on President Putin to restore deterrence and resolve the conflict under terms that would inhibit further aggression.
