Here’s what you need to know on Thursday, February 19th.
According to a report from the Financial Times, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), might step down sooner than expected, possibly before her retirement date in October 2027. This could give French President Emmanuel Macron a chance to influence who will succeed Lagarde, especially with her term concluding next May. An ECB spokesperson mentioned on Wednesday that no definitive decision has been made regarding Lagarde’s completion of her term.
Turning to the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has published the minutes from its January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. During this meeting, some policymakers expressed that additional cuts to interest rates could be necessary if inflation decreases as anticipated.
However, the committee also emphasized that their approach is not strictly one-sided. A number of participants advocated for a more balanced view of future decisions, indicating that a rate increase could also be warranted if inflation stays above the target. So, it seems they’re keeping options open. Officials expect inflation to gradually head toward the 2% goal, but they also recognized there’s some uncertainty about how fast or when this will happen.
The US dollar index (DXY) is hovering around the 97.70 mark, reaching a one-week high after the FOMC minutes were released.
USD price today
Today’s data shows the performance of the US dollar (USD) against major currencies. It appears to be strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1790 after the dollar gained strength from the FOMC minutes and the news about Lagarde. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around the 1.3500 mark, nearing a one-month low, driven by weak inflation and labor statistics in the UK, which have fueled expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England.
Regarding USD/JPY, the exchange rate surged to a one-week high nearing 154.80. Interestingly, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented that he prefers not to discuss market fluctuations, including currency exchange rates.
The AUD/USD is trading at approximately 0.7040, declining as the Australian dollar weakens against the US dollar. Similarly, the USD/CAD is around 1.3700, reaching a one-week high as lower-than-expected Canadian CPI data raised prospects of a Bank of Canada rate cut.
Gold prices have remained fairly stable after recovering losses from Tuesday, and it’s currently trading at $4,980 during U.S. market hours.
Here’s what’s next on the docket:
Thursday, February 19th:
- Australia’s January employment changes.
- Australian unemployment rate.
- ECB’s Lagarde’s speech.
Friday, February 20th:
- UK January retail sales.
- Germany’s February HCOB comprehensive PMI preliminary figures.
- Eurozone PMI.
- UK February S&P Global PMI update.
- US December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures.
- February US S&P Global PMI.
