Transgender Individuals and Mass Shootings: A Closer Look
A report by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) suggests that transgender individuals are significantly more involved in mass active shooter incidents than their population share would indicate. The study, which analyzed data from 2018 to 2024, predicts that by 2024, the incidence of shootings committed by transgender individuals could be at least twelve times greater than their percentage in the overall population.
Interestingly, the CPRC noted that prior research had not been able to replicate these findings, primarily because they lacked adjustments for transgender population proportions. For instance, a widely referenced report from PolitiFact in February 2024 claimed there was “no evidence” that violent extremism among LGBTQ+ groups or “trans terrorism” was increasing. A follow-up study in September 2025 explored the definitions of active shooter incidents and found that the data presented a contrasting perspective.
The CPRC elaborated that the estimates of the transgender population can vary, and different methodologies could define assaults in varied ways. Yet, analysis indicates that transgender individuals are committing these acts at a notably higher rate. Predictions for 2024 estimate that transgender people will be involved in active shooter incidents at least twelve times their population share, possibly as much as sixteen times.
They also noted that if we broaden the focus from just 2024 to cover the entire span from 2018 to 2024, a significant—but not disproportionate—number of attacks still involve transgender shooters.
According to the CPRC, using FBI data from 2018 to 2024 shows that transgender individuals are active shooters at a rate of 3.4 times their population percentage. If we use a higher estimate suggesting transgender individuals make up about 1% of the population, this rate could scale down to 2.5 times. The report emphasizes that discussions around transgender involvement in violent incidents often overlook the critical adjustment needed for population proportions, resulting in a potentially serious concern being underrepresented.
Recent incidents further highlight this issue. For example, on February 16, 2026, a transgender shooter opened fire at a high school hockey game, tragically taking the lives of his ex-wife and one son before ending his own life. Earlier, on February 10, 2026, biological males referred to by police as “They” opened fire in British Columbia, resulting in numerous fatalities and injuries.
In another case, on September 10, 2025, Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk was shot, with his suspected assailant reportedly having a transgender partner. Similarly, on August 27, 2025, a transgender man was involved in a shooting at a Catholic school in Minneapolis, resulting in several deaths and injuries while leaving behind a disturbing video message.
The occurrences seem to pile up, creating an increasingly complex narrative. The CPRC’s findings and the trends in the data prompt ongoing discussions about how society perceives and addresses these troubling incidents.
