Weekly Currency Outlook – March 1st to 6th, 2026 (Charts)

March 1, 2026

On the 22nd, I noted some key trades for February.

Consider going long on the S&P 500 Index after the daily close in New York exceeds 7,025. This setup wasn’t pre-planned.
Similarly, a long position in gold is worth taking if the daily close surpasses $5,418.55, though that wasn’t part of the original strategy either.
While New York is operating, I’ve taken a small long position in WTI oil, influenced by short-term bullish dynamics. I plan to secure profits if conflict intensifies or a deal materializes. This move has already triggered potential trades seeing prices nearing seven-month highs come Friday.

Here’s a quick summary of last week’s key market data:

The U.S. PPI showed a better-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month increase, surpassing the anticipated 0.3%. This shift caused a dip in the US stock market and altered interest rate cut expectations, though it hardly affected the US dollar.
President Trump’s State of the Union Address did not sway the markets significantly.
Australia’s CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month to 0.4%, remaining steady from an annual rate of 3.8%. This helped bolster the Australian dollar.
Canada’s GDP was slightly above projections, with a 0.2% monthly rise compared to the expected 0.1%, but it didn’t have a significant market impact.
U.S. unemployment claims landed mostly as anticipated.

The primary takeaway from last week’s economic reports was a slight dovish shift regarding rate cuts from the Fed and a boost for the Australian dollar amidst rising inflation concerns.

Tariff updates remained vague, yet the market generally seemed unruffled by it all.

This week was largely about speculation surrounding a possible U.S. strike on Iran. On Friday, the ambassador’s warning for Americans to leave Israel “today” caused prediction markets to narrow odds, showing only about a 30% chance of an attack over the weekend.

The ambassador’s comments were striking, especially since the joint U.S.-Israeli operation commenced shortly after dawn on Saturday, with initial strikes expected to unfold in the darkness hours before.

The first strike resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian officials, including military and advisory leaders. Iran responded with intermittent assaults on Israel and U.S.-aligned Gulf states, albeit causing minimal damage thus far. The U.S. and Israel have actively expressed intentions for regime change in Iran, showing a decidedly aggressive stance toward war.

Iran’s supreme leader, Khamenei, has been a notable adversary of the U.S. and Israel since 1989.

This conflict seems set to persist for days, if not weeks, and it’s unlikely that Iran’s regime will yield quickly, at least not right now.

Interestingly, Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah haven’t yet returned military fire, which might suggest a level of restraint following Khamenei’s confirmed death—an optimistic sign for the U.S. and Israel.

Recently, the Iranian navy cautioned vessels against entering the Gulf of Hormuz, but overall maritime traffic has fallen by roughly 70%. Given that over 10% of the world’s oil flows through this critical channel, a continued blockade could put pressure on supply unless OPEC decides to boost production. Early indications suggest they might, potentially aligning with President Trump’s tactics. Many traders may already be in long positions, as WTI oil prices surged to six-month highs on Friday, with gasoline prices spiking too.

Next week’s data points to watch include:

Average hourly wages in the U.S.
Changes in U.S. non-farm employment
U.S. retail sales figures
U.S. ISM Service PMI
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
Australian GDP
UK annual budget
U.S. unemployment rate
Claims for U.S. unemployment insurance

For February, I anticipated a rise in the EUR/USD currency pair.

We didn’t observe any wildly fluctuating currency pairs last week, which is why I’m withholding predictions for the upcoming week.

The Swiss franc emerged as the strongest major currency, while the Japanese yen was the weakest. Directional volatility dropped, with only 11% of major pairs and crosses deviating by more than 1%.

Next week might see elevated volatility due to Middle Eastern war impacts, possibly influencing the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar, with other currencies potentially feeling unexpected side effects.

Those forecasts can be executed via real or demo accounts in Forex.

Last week, the U.S. dollar reflected a slight indecisive candlestick, typically signifying uncertainty. For me, it suggests consolidation; prices seem comfortable in their current range.

In a broader view, recent movements hint at a bearish consolidation pattern, yet the last few weeks have shown bullish signs. The long-term trend feels mixed, as prices linger below three-month levels but may have slightly improved from six months ago.

The outlook for interest rates relating to the U.S. dollar remains comparatively optimistic, with markets now pricing in just two expected cuts of 0.25% in 2026, rather than the anticipated three. This was bolstered by the recent PPI data.

I don’t have a specific bias on the U.S. dollar right now. It doesn’t seem to be capturing the market’s interest. Perhaps it’s wise to focus on other assets this week.

WTI crude oil climbed last week, especially on Friday when the specter of a U.S. strike on Iran seemed to diminish, driving prices higher to a six-month high.

War rumors have proven true. Following the initial attacks on Saturday, which resulted in key Iranian fatalities, the U.S. and Israel have actively pushed for regime change, showing substantial commitment.

Neither side seems to be targeting oil facilities yet. However, Iran declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and many of its oil tankers are still hesitant to navigate through. If this state of affairs persists, over 10% of global crude oil supply may become constricted. Meanwhile, OPEC may increase production to alleviate the need for the U.S. to open the straights, potentially stabilizing oil and gasoline prices.

I anticipate WTI crude will likely rise again on Monday, regardless of current damage control efforts. As a trend trader, I’m holding a long position, expecting OPEC to ramp up production; I plan to exit by Monday or Tuesday.

Of course, I could be mistaken—prices might continue to climb in the short term, driven by emotional factors tied to the conflict. The ongoing situation could last for several days or weeks.

The AUD/USD pair is particularly intriguing right now. The Australian dollar is showing strength against the U.S. dollar, having outperformed it recently, even reaching a long-term high a couple of weeks back.

The Australian dollar is one of only three major currencies where central banks are looking to hike rates rather than cut them, and this trajectory appears solid and convincing.

I see a positive long-term future for the Australian dollar.

On the technical side, last week’s candlestick showed robust bullish behavior, breaking out from the previous week’s confines. If prices can stabilize above $0.7134 in the future, we could see the currency continue to ascend.

Bitcoin is currently displaying a textbook consolidation range between $61,229 and $71,762, but the lower extension hints at bearish momentum. While there’s significant bearish pressure, long-term investors might consider this range a bargain. A strong bullish breakout above $71,762 could spark a swift rally towards $81,203, although that seems unlikely.

A bearish breakdown under the critical low of $61,229 would likely lead to a substantial decline in Bitcoin’s value.

Gold prices are showing signs of a strong resurgence, although they’re still far from all-time highs reached recently. Friday’s rally was particularly notable, closing at the week and day’s peak.

Gold appears poised to continue its upward momentum, transitioning from a brief surge to a more sustainable climb.

The prices remain above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from a recent drop, which is encouraging.

Traders looking for immediate gains might jump in now, though I prefer to wait for a daily close surpassing $5,418.55 before committing to a long position.

Additionally, silver prices rallied last week, ending above $93 per ounce. Both precious metals are at their highest levels since the market crash a month ago.

For this week, I suggest the following trades: