Shifting Alliances in the Gulf
In a significant development, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations are subtly changing their positions regarding Iran amidst increasing regional tensions. Over the past decade, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have relied on U.S. military support while fostering economic and diplomatic ties and avoiding direct confrontations with Tehran. However, this balanced approach is now under strain.
Officials and analysts suggest that Iran’s rising aggression is limiting the room Gulf nations have for neutrality, pushing them closer to aligning with the U.S. One notable example is Saudi Arabia’s reported decision to permit American forces to utilize King Fahd Air Base in Taif, a facility that hasn’t seen combat operations by U.S. forces since the Gulf War.
Signs of this shift are evident throughout the region. The UAE, for instance, has severed diplomatic relations with Iran, shut down Iranian-linked institutions, and begun investigating networks associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Bahrain has taken a leading role in advocating for a United Nations resolution that denounces Iran’s attacks on Gulf states, and countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s actions, asserting their right to defense.
These Gulf nations and the U.S. share concerns over Iran’s missile advancements, uranium enrichment, and its support for various armed groups. Still, they oppose direct strikes on essential Iranian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Qatar has expelled Iranian military and security personnel following attacks on energy infrastructures, yet it chooses not to fully cut diplomatic ties and maintains its mediator role despite the rising tensions.
The Prime Minister of Qatar was recently in Washington discussing defense cooperation and safeguarding vital energy infrastructure, illustrating the growing emphasis on security in the wake of Iranian aggression. King Fahd Air Base’s strategic location within Saudi Arabia, away from Iranian missile ranges, offers potential for U.S. operations that have not been used in decades, as U.S. military strategies have primarily relied on bases closer to the Persian Gulf.
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has agreed to the U.S. military’s use of the base. However, both the Pentagon and Saudi officials have refrained from making public comments on the issue. U.S. fighter jets often operate without transponders in potential conflict areas, which complicates the situation given Saudi Arabia’s controlled media environment that limits independent reporting on U.S. military activities.
In response to Iranian hostility, the Saudi government has expressed that its principal objective is protecting its citizens and infrastructure, criticizing Iran for opting for confrontational tactics instead of pursuing diplomatic solutions. This adjustment at the base is one of many signs that Gulf nations are reevaluating their positions as Iranian provocations escalate.
While Gulf leaders are not engaging in direct combat and are working towards diplomatic resolutions, their collaboration with the U.S. military and unified condemnation of Iran indicates growing dissatisfaction with Iran’s actions within their territories. President Donald Trump remarked that countries in the region—Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman—are surprised by the extent of Iranian hostilities beyond typical regional flashpoints.
Since late February, Iran has launched a flurry of missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, targeting various nations, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Following the initiation of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, Iran threatened repercussions against U.S. forces and its regional allies, promptly acting upon these threats by striking bases and critical infrastructure.
Despite extensive diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions, Gulf states have struggled to fend off Iranian aggression. In 2023, Saudi Arabia had rekindled diplomatic relations, while the UAE maintained pathways for limited commercial activities with Iran.
The measures being taken by Gulf nations are still under observation and debate. The United States already operates from several bases in Saudi Arabia, like Prince Sultan Air Base; however, these sites, while close to the Gulf, remain susceptible to Iranian strikes. In contrast, locations like Taif, being more inland, potentially provide longer warning times against attacks.
Experts warn that Gulf countries need to tread carefully, understanding that even after a potential conflict, they will have to coexist with Iran. Some argue that while small, the Gulf states face a significant challenge, emphasizing that a weakened Iran could rebound and continue to pose threats.
Despite the conflicts, analysts believe there’s still an opportunity for Gulf countries to deepen their cooperation with the United States. Strengthening ties in areas like air defense, intelligence sharing, and cybersecurity could be beneficial. There’s also the potential for a coordinated mission to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a significant portion of the world’s oil supply, currently compromised due to Iranian threats.
Though tensions escalate, Gulf leaders remain in pursuit of diplomatic avenues. Recently, Saudi Arabia hosted discussions aimed at exploring the possibility of ceasefires, indicating that they strive to manage the conflict while bolstering their security measures.
At this juncture, Gulf nations find themselves navigating a precarious path. As Iranian attacks escalate, their alignment with Washington deepens, yet they stop short of full military collaboration in a potential conflict that could reshape the region for years to come.
