Analysis of Iran’s Military Preparedness Amid Ongoing Conflict

The Iranian military isn’t structured to win a conventional war against either the United States or Israel. Instead, experts argue it’s built for resilience—able to endure damage and keep fighting over the long haul.

This strategy is not just theoretical; it can be observed in the composition of the military and how it’s currently operating after weeks of strikes from U.S. and Israeli forces.

Since Operation Epic Fury began, there have been extensive attacks on more than 9,000 warplanes, various missile bases, air defenses, and facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), as noted in a recent U.S. Central Command report.

Iran’s Strategic Goals: Kharg Island and Uranium Security

U.S. officials have made their objectives clear. “We seek to dismantle Iran’s ballistic missile systems, neutralize their navy, and prevent rapid reconstruction,” stated Dan Cain, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a Pentagon briefing in March.

However, experts caution that the situation is nuanced. Nicholas Karl from the American Enterprise Institute remarked, “Though Iran’s military has faced severe degradation, it still possesses significant capabilities.”

Dual Structure of Iran’s Military

Iran’s military has a deliberate dual structure: the regular army, called the Artesh, and the IRGC, which was established for the regime’s protection following the 1979 revolution.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has influenced the military’s direction for decades, focusing on preserving the Islamic Republic and promoting its revolutionary ideals.

“It’s crucial to differentiate between the Revolutionary Guards and the Artesh,” said Danny Sitrinowitz, a Middle East intelligence expert. The Guards receive better pay, equipment, and budget allocations compared to the regular army, which is thought to be more conventional in approach.

“While the Revolutionary Guards may present a heightened threat, we shouldn’t overlook the potential dangers posed by the regular army,” Karl pointed out.

Missiles: Iran’s Key Military Asset

Despite facing significant attacks, Iran’s missile program remains central to its military strength. The IRGC Aerospace Force has established what some experts describe as the largest missile stockpile in the Middle East.

U.S. officials claim that recent operations have substantially diminished these capabilities. For instance, Cain noted that Iran’s ballistic missile launches have dropped by 86% since the conflict began.

Additionally, Army Secretary Pete Hegseth highlighted that Iran’s capacity to conduct sustained attacks has been significantly curtailed. Yet, the threat persists: “Iran still has the means to launch missiles and drones,” he said.

Karl added, “Iranian missile and drone activity has decreased sharply, but they’ve settled at a consistent level, which allows them to continue regional strikes.” Roughly a third of Iran’s missile capabilities are reportedly still operational.

A Navy Designed for Disruption

The Pentagon has announced significant reductions in the Iranian Navy’s effectiveness, with over 140 vessels reportedly damaged or destroyed. Despite this, analysts believe the naval threat remains, as the IRGC focuses on “area denial” tactics rather than traditional naval power.

“Iran can still disrupt shipping in strategic waters,” Citrinovic explained. The IRGC employs small fast-attack crafts and mines to pose threats in those regions.

Ground Forces and Proxies

On the ground, Iran’s military has managed to avoid direct combat, maintaining a robust structure that primarily defends its territory. Karl’s report indicates that the Artesh continues to be intact, with no significant invasions to date.

The Quds Force, a branch of the IRGC, extends Iran’s military reach through a network of allied militias, supplying them with leadership, resources, and training.

Enduring Challenges

Iran’s military strategy prioritizes internal stability and survival, leading to a resilient force built on redundancy and asymmetry. Despite the pressures of ongoing conflict, Iran continues to demonstrate its ability to fire missiles and leverage proxy forces effectively.

This situation signifies that, even when weakened, Iran remains a strategic threat. As Karl concluded, “We must not underestimate the capabilities of the Iranian military, which can still endanger both regional and international security.”