Simply put
- Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling $290 million, with the $225.5 million drawn out on Friday being the largest single-day reduction.
- BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone lost $201.5 million on that same Friday, marking the most significant outflow for a single fund during the week.
- Financial flows turned negative as geopolitical tensions escalated and hopes for a ceasefire diminished.
More than $290 million exited Bitcoin ETFs recently as a widespread “risk-off” attitude impacted global markets due to rising geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns.
According to data from Farside Investors, the total weekly outflow from March 24th to 27th was around $296 million, significantly affecting BlackRock IBIT and other prominent funds.
The most dramatic daily outflow came on Friday, which registered $225.5 million in total U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, capping off a tumultuous week that had begun with inflows of $167.2 million on Monday.
“The mood in the market is clearly risk-off,” remarked Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, referencing Bitcoin’s performance. The S&P 500 index dropped to a three-week low, marking its fifth consecutive week of losses—the longest losing streak since 2022.
“The macro pressures against it are intensifying,” Gilbert added. “Soaring oil prices are fuelling inflation fears and pushing expectations for interest rate cuts further away. This diminishes the very catalysts risk assets need to stabilize.”
Geopolitical uncertainties surged after President Trump mentioned the possibility of “taking hold of Iranian oil” and seizing Kharg Island, the main energy hub in the country.
Gilbert suggested that a ceasefire could lead to a strong rebound in markets, but cautioned that without a credible resolution, volatility will likely continue.
Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, noted that while a “risk-off” sentiment played a crucial role, last week’s outflows appeared “less dramatic than in recent patterns.”
“I think the market has really been swayed by a broader risk-off trend as the potential for a ceasefire waned and peace talks ran into difficulties as the weekend approached,” he said.
Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, shared a similar perspective, linking the outflow to “risk-off feelings and end-of-quarter adjustments.” He considered the $290 million outflow as “quite typical.”
Kala remarked that Bitcoin’s relative strength compared to other asset classes remains “noteworthy and very supportive,” warning against overinterpreting the weekly flow data’s significance.
“ETF inflows and outflows aren’t just one-directional. There’s also considerable basis trading by hedge funds,” he noted. “Thus, there are no clear thresholds that would signal a structural change.”
Gilbert acknowledged that Bitcoin had managed to hold up reasonably well in the ongoing turmoil, impressively so for a risky asset, but he warned that persistent tensions suggest Bitcoin isn’t immune to the widespread selloff.
He pointed out that markets are increasingly anticipating Fed rate increases, a contrast to the multiple cuts previously anticipated months ago. Gilbert also cautioned that remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell might further intensify pressure.
Prediction market Myriad shows bearish sentiment, with users estimating a 56.8% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 rather than rising to $84,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $67,574, reflecting a 1.4% increase in the last 24 hours, after dipping to the $65,000 range earlier on Monday, according to CoinGecko data.
