The EUR/USD currency pair has faced challenges in building on its recent gains over the past couple of days, peaking just yesterday before experiencing significant selling pressure during Asian trading on Thursday. Current spot prices have dipped below the 1.1550 mark in the last hour, largely due to renewed interest in the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This shift comes after US President Trump’s latest comments regarding the Iran situation, which have dampened expectations for any potential easing of tensions.
Trump has warned that if a deal isn’t made, Iran could face severe consequences in the coming weeks, suggesting that the nation could be pushed back to a primitive state. He pointed out that Iran’s energy infrastructure could be a target, leading to a spike in oil prices and raising concerns about inflation. Consequently, this scenario strengthens the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, putting additional pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.
From a technical standpoint, traders looking to sell may find opportunities as the price retreats from the 1.1620-1.1625 resistance zone, particularly since levels above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart have not held. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) briefly showed a positive signal but has since edged back toward neutral territory, indicating that bullish momentum is waning. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 50, a sign that the earlier overbought conditions are proving difficult to sustain.
Looking ahead, the immediate support level appears to be at 1.1520, which protects against a recent low around 1.1485. A drop below this level would likely open up further downside toward the 1.1450 area. On the flip side, the near-term resistance is set at 1.1580, followed by a stronger barrier in the 1.1610-1.1620 range, where the previous swing high aligns with the 200-period EMA. To regain a clear bullish stance, a sustained move above this upper resistance zone is necessary. However, if the 1.1520 support fails, attention might shift back toward the mid-1.1400s.
