Challenges Ahead for Democrats in Senate Control
Recent polling insights from CNN’s Harry Enten suggest that the Democrats might struggle to reclaim the Senate majority unless current trends change dramatically.
On Monday, Enten mentioned that while Democrats hold a slight edge in the overall legislative vote, it’s not substantial enough to snatch the Senate away from Republican oversight.
“There’s a case to be made that Democrats should be leading by a larger margin, but they’re only marginally ahead.”
Public opinion data indicates that, for the upcoming 2026 election, the Democrats’ net approval is sitting at just 5 points. This is notably lower than their approval ratings during past midterm elections—8 points in 2018 and 11 points in 2006. These past elections were under Republican presidencies, which makes the current scenario all the more interesting.
“To put it simply, Democrats are trailing behind their historical norms. Considering the current landscape, they have a considerable distance to cover if they aim to reclaim the U.S. Senate,” Enten elaborated.
He noted that even though former President Donald Trump’s popularity has seen a downturn lately, the Democrats haven’t effectively capitalized on this dip to regain control of either legislative chamber.
“Democrats might have a lead, but it’s minimal—merely five points over a president who has a net approval rating ranging from -20 to -30, depending on the specific poll,” Enten explained. “Again, one could argue that they should be significantly ahead, yet they are only just above water.”
CNN’s John Berman chimed in, highlighting that such narrow margins could still play into a potential Democratic win in the House of Representatives, despite the unflattering ratings.
“I feel like 5 points could swing the House back toward Democrats, but when it comes to the Senate—it’s pretty unlikely. The current Senate map isn’t favorable enough,” Enten added.
He went on to present a scenario where Republicans could secure the Senate by retaining states Trump won by a substantial margin. This scenario could see Republicans maintaining a 51-49 seat advantage in the Senate.
Under the given circumstances, while Democrats might claim victories in states like North Carolina and Maine, Republicans would likely hold onto their positions in key areas such as Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, per Enten’s analysis.
Steve Kornacki from NBC News also acknowledged these challenges, concluding that Democrats indeed face an uphill battle if they wish to regain control of Congress.
