Declining Birth Rates in the U.S.

Vice President J.D. Vance, alongside Vice President Usha Vance, who is expecting her fourth child this July, expressed support for pro-life advocates at last year’s March for Life. He stated, “I want more babies in the United States of America. I want more happy children in this country. And I want beautiful young men and young women who will welcome them into the world and passionately raise them.” Unfortunately, while there may be some talk of a baby boom in America, last year did not show such a trend.

According to new research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. birth rate is expected to fall to an all-time low by 2025.

In 2024, there were approximately 3,606,400 births, reflecting a 1% decline from the previous year. Mothers aged 30 to 34 accounted for just over 1.11 million multiple births, aligning with a longstanding trend of women delaying childbirth or starting families later in life.

The overall fertility rate, which estimates the average number of children a woman would have based on age-specific fertility rates, stood at 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. This represents a 23% decrease since 2007, the time of the Great Recession.

Interestingly, births among women aged 15 to 44 also dropped by 1% year-on-year. The birth rate for adolescents aged 15 to 19 decreased by 7% last year, reaching a record low of 11.7 births per 1,000 women in that category. The CDC has noted that since 2007, the teen birth rate has plummeted by 72% and by 81% since 1991.

The total fertility rate has seen a significant decline over the years. For instance, in 1960, the U.S. average was about 3.7 births per woman, which shrank to 1.64 by 2020 and further dropped to 1.57 last year. Projections indicate it will be around 1.6 in 2024, according to calculations from the Wall Street Journal using new CDC data.

This decline in fertility rates poses serious implications for those wishing to maintain the American tradition, as a stable population requires a fertility rate of 2.1. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated that rates below replacement level could “represent a national security threat to our country.”

Throughout the developed world, fertility rates are also witnessing a downward trend. In the European Union, for example, it has dropped from 2.62 in 1964 to 1.34 in 2024. Notably, Scotland’s rates fell to around 1.25 in England and Wales, while Canada is expected to record very low fertility rates at 1.25 children per woman by 2024. The Canadian government attributes this decline to various factors, including improved education levels, greater workforce participation, shifting social norms, and more widespread contraception use.

A report from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicated that birth rates among foreign-born women in the U.S. compared to native-born women are notably higher, at 1.79 births versus 1.53, respectively.

The report further suggested that population growth will likely slow over the coming decades, with projections indicating an average growth rate declining from 0.3% per year over the next ten years to 0.1% per year between 2037 and 2056. It is estimated that the total population will plateau around 2056.

Despite the grim statistics, some analysts view the declining birth rate in a more positive light. Alison Gemmill, an associate professor at UCLA, remarked that women now have greater control over their reproductive choices, leading to fewer unwanted pregnancies. She commented, “Our timeline has changed.”

Recent data indicated around 1.126 million abortions were performed last year, comprising nearly a third of all reported births, according to information from the Guttmacher Institute.

Some potential parents are rethinking their decision to have children, with factors like concerns over climate change, economic uncertainty, and social justice issues weighing heavily on their minds, as suggested by Gemmill.

As demographer Karen Benjamin Guzzo noted for The New York Times, while the birth rate decline may seem troubling, it also highlights a success story—many individuals are making informed choices about family planning.

The Heritage Foundation, however, views this trend as a crisis, stating that American family life is at a crossroads characterized by low marriage rates, low birth rates, and changing perspectives on family formation. Their report suggests a prioritization of the family unit through devotion and sacrifice for the next generation, stating, “Underlying this view is a deep sense of gratitude that humans are here by God’s grace and that children are a gift from God.”

The stakes, as emphasized in the report, are indeed very high for Americans today.