Key Points

• Even with strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin continues to closely follow the S&P 500 and shows sensitivity to global economic trends.

• Current Bitcoin futures premiums and miner selling behavior indicate that the bear market is still in effect, despite Bitcoin trading above $74,000.

On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back to the $74,000 mark as the S&P 500 saw a slight increase following President Donald Trump’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trader sentiment appears to be improving, notably with significant inflows into the US-listed Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and ongoing accumulation by Strategies (MSTR US). But, one has to wonder, is this really the end of the bear market?

The U.S.-listed Spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of $615 million from Thursday to Friday, reversing a trend observed in earlier days. Meanwhile, Strategy announced that it had purchased 13,927 BTC in the last week, a move funded through their high-yield financial instrument, Stretch (STRC US).

Despite rising institutional interest, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with broader economic movements reflected in the S&P 500 and the overall US economy. Over the weekend, Bitcoin dipped to $70,500 after US-Iran ceasefire discussions stumbled. However, on Monday, Brent crude oil prices dropped to $99, facilitating a recovery in risk assets like Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin has shown resilience at the $74,000 mark, indicators in derivatives don’t point to a bullish outlook yet.

Bitcoin monthly futures are currently trading at a 2% annual premium over the regular spot market, reflecting a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Ideally, this index should stay between 4% and 8% to offset capital costs. Regardless of recent performance, Bitcoin is still down 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 has remained relatively stable since the year started.

Potential Support from Regulatory Clarity

It’s difficult to identify the exact reasons behind Bitcoin’s notable decline in late January, but the absence of strong support from US lawmakers regarding regulatory measures might have influenced it. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged her fellow legislators to pass the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify how stablecoin issuers operate and potentially set standards for what qualifies as decentralized tokens.

This bill is currently a vital consideration in the Senate Banking Committee. Recently, major exchanges have expressed worries over unexpected amendments to limits on decentralized finance (DeFi) and the overall scope of tokenized assets. Additionally, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has emphasized that now is the right time for Congress to advance on regulation.

On Monday, the US dollar stablecoin was trading at a 0.4% discount compared to the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate, typically indicating excess demand leaving the crypto market. In balanced conditions, a premium between 0.5% to 1.5% is common to cover traditional foreign exchange transfer costs and regulatory challenges posed by China’s capital controls.

Bitcoin Miners’ Selling Pressure Amid Economic Uncertainty

Given its strong correlation with traditional markets alongside weak derivatives metrics, it’s hard to assert that the Bitcoin bear market has concluded based solely on ETF inflows and acquisitions by a limited number of firms, particularly since publicly traded miners have reduced their positions recently.

MARA Holdings (MARA US) sold 15,133 BTC, while Riot Platforms (RIOT US) cut its holdings by 2,325 BTC, and Cango (CANG US) offloaded 2,000 BTC in the past month.

For now, whether Bitcoin scales up to $80,000 largely hinges on improving risk perceptions, as short-term momentum is closely tied to conditions in the US and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.