Bitcoin and Market Updates
As of Friday during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered around $74,700. This reflects a slight decline of 0.4% over the past day, although it’s gained 3.5% over the week. The pause in a recent 10-day rally in global stocks comes just before the anticipated ceasefire expiration between the United States and Iran next week.
Ether experienced a 1.4% uptick, reaching $2,327, continuing to outperform its peers with a 6% weekly increase. Other cryptocurrencies also saw gains: XRP climbed 6.4% to $1.43, Solana rose 2.7% to $87.67, BNB advanced 0.7% to $629.89, while Dogecoin increased 5.6% for the week, hitting $0.0976.
On Thursday, the MSCI All Country World Index set a new record high, even after a 0.1% drop in Asian markets. The S&P 500 achieved a similar milestone. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.2% to $98.20 following President Trump’s optimistic remarks suggesting that the chances for a lasting ceasefire with Iran “look very good.”
Trump has asserted, without providing evidence, that Iran is willing to forfeit its nuclear ambitions, return nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of this deal. However, there has been no confirmation from Iran regarding these claims.
Separately, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was confirmed on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issuing a video statement. Market reactions portray a sense of optimism regarding deals, but some analysts believe this might be overstated, as stocks have shed much of the war-related premium despite oil prices remaining elevated and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed.
Yet, some traders are analyzing Bitcoin’s relatively stagnant price movements. Recently, Bitcoin’s perpetual funding rate dipped into negative territory, a level not seen since earlier this year. This funding rate is tied to periodic payments in perpetual futures aimed at aligning contract prices with cash. A negative rate means that short-sellers compensate long holders, contingent on market positioning.
“A negative funding rate suggests a significant market shortage,” noted ZeroStack CEO Daniel Rice Faria in a communication with CoinDesk. “If Bitcoin continues to rise despite this, positions could be liquidated quickly, leading to rapid movement.”
Rice Faria forecasts that if shorts are forced out, Bitcoin could potentially reach $125,000 within the next month or two.
“It serves as a reminder that, regardless of how much short interest exists, significant buying pressures from larger investors can squeeze those positions,” he commented.
On the other side, on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers a contrasting view, suggesting that Bitcoin’s “true market average” metric indicates that many active investors are currently at a loss. This metric, which excludes dormant and lost coins to estimate the average cost base, has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s tougher periods, including significant drawdowns in 2018-19 and again in 2022-23.
These two perspectives don’t necessarily contradict each other. A short-term squeeze driven by negative funding could occur concurrently with broader market pullbacks due to underwater holders, potentially leading to an unusual rally followed by subsequent selling.
Ultimately, which scenario unfolds may hinge on the durability of the ceasefire arrangement between the United States and Iran in the coming days.
