2024 BTC cycle significantly lagging behind past halvings, according to analyst

Current Bitcoin Market Cycle Weaker Than Previous Ones

The present Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the earlier three cycles, as indicated by Alex Thorne, head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorne analyzed price trends following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, comparing them to cycles from 2012, 2016, and 2020. This current cycle has exhibited significantly lower volatility and less potential for upside gain. The peak price surpassed $125,000 on October 5, 2025, but this was only about 97% above the 2024 halving price of approximately $63,000.

In contrast, during the 2012 halving, BTC prices soared around 9,294%, hitting about $1,163. In 2016, prices increased roughly 2,950%, reaching about $19,891, and in 2020, prices rose by around 761%.

“Cycle 4 is notably weaker compared to earlier cycles,” Thorne remarked in a post on X, pondering whether this is “the new normal, or just temporary.”

The diminishing volatility observed with each succeeding BTC halving hints at evolving market dynamics, suggesting that BTC pricing might increasingly be influenced by factors beyond the traditional halving or four-year cycle theory.

The 30-day volatility index for Bitcoin, which peaked at 9.64% on April 2, 2020, hasn’t exceeded 3.11% in this current cycle. The last update was on August 24, 2024, and Bitbo’s recent data indicates a current 30-day estimate of just 1.75%.

There are criticisms regarding the performance in this cycle, particularly about how it overlooks prior all-time highs before the 2024 halving.

BTC achieved an all-time high exceeding $70,000 in March 2024, roughly a month ahead of the April halving, primarily triggered by the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S.

Some skeptics argue that this historical anomaly, where Bitcoin peaks before the halving, has skewed the current cycle’s price performance.

Fidelity Digital Assets has noted that Bitcoin’s drawdowns have become less severe with the drop in volatility.

Zach Wainwright, a research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, mentioned that prior Bitcoin bear markets saw declines of 80% to 90%. Yet, according to their analysis, Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time high of over $125,000 to about $60,000 signifies only a little over a 50% decline.

Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management firm VanEck, stated in March that BTC is nearing a bottom and anticipates gradual price increases starting in 2026.